For Ukraine, it's search out the future -- or die

Environmental and climate advocate Bill McKibben points out that the planet-wide shift to harness energy from the sun is not only transforming how we produce heat and power cars. It is also changing how war is waged.

It's hard to drone a solar panel. 

The war in Ukraine may be adding resilience to the list of clean energy's virtues. 

As I write this, the Orsknefteorgsintez refinery in Orsk, Russia is ablaze. It sits 1,400 kilometers from the border with Ukraine—in fact, along the border with Kazakhstan. The refinery has a capacity of 6.6 million tons of oil yearly, and among other things it’s one of two refineries capable of producing the jet fuel used by the country’s strategic bombers.

The best reason for nations to switch to power from the sun and wind is that it will reduce, by some degree, the severity of the climate crisis (and save millions of lives lost each year to pollution). The second best reason is that it’s cheaper than fossil fuel, and any nation who doesn’t shift will be stuck with an economy running on expensive energy. But it seems to me—not a military analyst, but a fairly good tea-leaves reader—that the war in Ukraine may be adding a third to the list: its comparative invulnerability to attack.

As the world has begun to figure out, something important has happened amidst the carnage of Russia’s immoral invasion: warfare has changed forever, with the small drone quickly replacing much of the military hardware we grew accustomed to in the 20th century. 

Drones have been ubiquitous along the front lines, where the no-man’s zone between the armies is lethally patrolled by squadrons of drones able to take out tanks, troop transports, and pretty much anything else—that explains much of the stasis of the last two years; the competing forces are largely pinned down. 

The Russians, of course, have also been using drones to attack civilian assets—every night a new sortie, mixed in with missiles, seems to take out kindergartens, hospitals, and old folks homes. An early target was Ukraine’s energy sources, in an effort to freeze the fight out of the nation. (Currently the Russians seem to be playing dangerous games with the offline nuclear power plants not far from the front lines). But as we head into yet another war of winter, Ukraine hangs on—and more than hangs on. 

Over the course of the war, by sheer necessity, Ukraine has developed a formidable drone industry, and increasingly it is using them against a singular set of targets: the oil refining and transport infrastructure spread out across its sprawling foe. Russia has formidable air defenses, of course—Ukraine couldn’t fly a bomber across 1,400 kilometers of the country’s airspace to bomb a refinery. But the small and comparatively slow drones have proved equal to the task. ...

Russia can, and does, shoot rockets at the centers of Ukrainian civilian life. But Ukrainians, motivated by necessity and determined courage, have found, at least for the moment, an answer that sustains their embattled nation with sun power they have developed themselves. The war is making oil refining and coal burning obsolete and perilous technologies to depend on.

...The general lesson to be drawn from this, it seems to me, is that centralized and complex energy facilities are now sitting ducks for drone attack, and that that will certainly alter military calculations going forward. A refinery, for instance, is one of the most complicated machines humanity has ever constructed, often covering hundreds of acres. It’s filled with highly complex equipment and highly flammable hydrocarbons; hit one corner with a drone and the flames and the damage are likely to spread quickly. Not far behind—as Ukraine has learned to its sadness—are coal and gas-fired power plants—expensive infrastructure that can take months or years to rebuild as your citizens shiver. 

By contrast, solar farms and wind turbines are scattered, which makes them harder to hit, and relatively simple to fix. Silicon doesn’t explode when it’s hit: a drone may take out some panels, but they are easy to switch out for new ones. And individual rooftop installations are too small to be systematically attacked. ...

I'm sure McKibben would agree that it would be far better if Russia hadn't made war on its proud, self-reliant neighbor. But since Russia has, we can marvel at how Ukrainian innovation is showing how a small nation can preserve its independence by adopting the energy source of the future. 

Too often, war midwifes scientific advances that only kill more efficiently. There is so much death in Ukraine, but also so much life. 

Friday cat blogging

Meet Mio the Magnificent. You wouldn't know he is actually a sweet softie, would you? We live with this.

Terror for transpeople

Where decent people saw a frightening political murder, disgusting people saw an opportunity to stir and enlist hatred for political purposes.

Unhappily, it's fair to say that Charlie Kirk's Republican funders and political sponsors (but not the woman who loved him) got one bit of what they'd paid for after his untimely demise: yet another chance to stick it to transfolk and other gender nonconforming people.

Journalist Parker Molloy reports on the terror unleashed. 

... While the Heritage Foundation manufactures fake statistics to paint trans people as violent terrorists, actual terrorism is happening in the real world—and it’s targeting LGBTQ people.

In the week following Charlie Kirk’s death, there have been at least two attempted terrorist attacks explicitly planned as “revenge” against the LGBTQ community. Not revenge against any actual suspect or accomplice. Not revenge based on any evidence. Just revenge against random gay and trans people for something they had nothing to do with.

In Phoenix, a 49-year-old named Treven Gokey was arrested after threatening to shoot up a gay bar. He told police he wanted to be “a martyr for Charlie Kirk” and that “radical left violence breeds a far-right response.” When officers asked him about recent violence, he said it made him want to “harm others” to send a message. He’s now sitting in jail on a $250,000 bond, charged with making terroristic threats.

Meanwhile in Texas, Joshua Cole posted on Facebook about an upcoming Pride parade in Abilene: “fk their parade, I say we lock and load and pay them back for taking out Charlie Kirk.” He added, “theres only like 30 of em we can send a clear message to the rest of them,” before suggesting they go “hunting fairies.” The FBI arrested him the day before the parade. During questioning, he admitted he “did not believe that the gay pride event should be allowed.”

... Heritage claims — based on absolutely nothing — that “transgender ideology” drives violence. But in the real world, it’s anti-LGBTQ rhetoric that’s inspiring actual terrorist threats. These men didn’t need evidence that LGBTQ people were involved in Kirk’s death. They didn’t need facts. All they needed was the permission structure that years of demonization had already built.

And that permission structure got reinforced immediately after Kirk’s death. Conservative media blamed “the left” before anyone even knew who the shooter was. The day after the assassination, bomb threats forced evacuations at the DNC headquarters and multiple HBCUs. The apparatus of rage was already primed and ready — it just needed an excuse.

Cole, by the way, had already been arrested for making terroristic threats back in 2019. The court noted his “prior criminal history” and said his release would pose a “serious danger to any person or the community.” But sure, let’s create a new terrorism category for trans people who, according to actual data, commit less than 0.1% of mass shootings. ...

Meanwhile we're in a "government shutdown" because Republicans refuse to present a budget that enough Democratic senators will vote for to overcome a filibuster. The media mostly focuses on the vicious cuts that Republicans are trying to make to health care, cuts which Democrats reject.

But the Republican plan also includes poison pills designed to erase and even destroy trans lives and life. Erin In The Morning reports:

... There is one promising sign for LGBTQ+ people in all this: Democrats, by refusing to cave to Republican demands on both the full-year appropriations bills and the continuing resolution, have shown a degree of backbone critics often accuse them of lacking. ... When talks eventually turn back to funding the government for the full year, there’s hope that Republicans may steer clear of poison pills like the anti-LGBTQ+ riders that risk blowing up the process altogether. 

... Still, there’s reason for concern that the pressure of a shutdown could push Democrats to cave on key constituencies—LGBTQ+ people chief among them. The memory of last year looms large. When Republicans laced the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act with anti-trans riders, Democrats in the Senate, having control of that chamber at the time, had the chance to strip them out. Instead, leadership folded: they refused to allow a vote to remove the provisions and passed the bill intact, cutting off TRICARE coverage for gender-affirming care for the children of servicemembers. For many trans advocates, it was a stinging betrayal. 

Now the fear is of a repeat—only worse. This year’s House NDAA goes even further, piling on a military bathroom ban, a sports ban, a coverage ban, and more, and the same fears hold true for negotiations over the bills funding the federal government for the next year.

... Republicans—Trump chief among them—have made clear that anti-trans provisions are on the table for the full-year appropriations fight. In recent days, Trump used both a Truth Social post and a grotesquely offensive deepfake video of Chuck Schumer to hammer Democrats, accusing them of protecting transgender people in the shutdown fight and vowing to walk away from negotiations unless they conceded ground. On Capitol Hill, several Republican members echoed the line, blasting Democrats for supposedly backing “taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries” in the federal budget—a talking point pulled straight from the party’s broader anti-trans playbook.

But backlash can go either direction. This report continues:

At least one source told Erin In The Morning that congressional offices were inundated with calls from LGBTQ+ constituents on Tuesday demanding that their rights not be bargained away in the final FY26 appropriations deal. ... 

... call your congressmembers and demand that any negotiations over funding the government for the next year must not include anti-LGBTQ+ provisions pushed by Republicans in power.

Republicans needed a scapegoat to blame for the vicious harm they want to inflict on us all; trans people have been drafted to serve that function. They can't really be so afraid of such a tiny, less than 1 percent fraction of the 330 million of us, can they? Oh gosh, apparently they can and want everyone to share their fears. And beat up on the bogey, metaphorically and sometimes actually.

It's on all of us to ensure that MAGA can't pick off one tiny segment of our American body on the way to injuring all of us. 

There's life in the old republic yet

Too tired today to write a think piece, so I'll just pass along a couple of recent found-images in completely different resistance styles.

I'd call this "assertive patriotism".

This one is more a vigorous "urban outburst".

In both cases, they embody hope for this tired old republic: that we the people will assert ourselves as the legitimate rulers of ourselves, not subject to whims of a doddering old phony and his rich and craven sycophants. 

That is all.