Damn lies and statistics

Washington Post politics and data writer Philip Bump has done a terrific job of showing how politicians exaggerate crime statistics when goosing anxiety suits their purposes. In a newsletter that came with my Wapo subscription (sorry, no direct link available), he writes:

[New York Mayor Eric Adams] was presenting his administration's anticipated budget and, as part of that, made the case that the city needed to make investments necessary to combat rising crime.

So Bump shows Adams' chart:

Click to enlarge

Now that looks scary!

But note how relatively small the increments in the left axis are, running from 92,000 to 104,000 offenses.

Bump offers another way to visualize the same data that he thinks is more realistic -- or at least far less alarmist.

Click to enlarge

When the left axis starts from zero -- wouldn't we love zero felony offenses? -- rising to 120,000, the increase looks much less dire, only 7.5 percent over previous year.

Being aware of what's really going on in charts about increasing felonies is going to be politically important in the coming year. Republicans are bound and determined to scream "RISING CRIME" whether statistics support that conclusion, or do not, or show something more nuanced.

Wariness about inflammatory howls claiming rising crime are going to be especially important in San Francisco where much of the moneyed establishment and supporters of the police union are out to recall our elected District Attorney, Chesa Boudin. Beware.