Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Politicians without friends:
Carole Midgen and Phillip Burton


Statue of Congressman Philip Burton overlooking the Golden Gate National Recreation Area he created.

Looking over reports of San Francisco State Senator Carole Migden's loss in the primary last week to Assemblyman Mark Leno, this phrase from the Sacramento Bee jumped out at me:

But Leno had a reputation for being as congenial as Migden is brusque.

Yes -- that about catches it. Leno has overturned the established order of things -- the understanding in effect since term limits came into force in California -- that once installed in their comfortably gerrymandered seats, incumbents would get to serve out their limited time. But not Carole.

You see, Migden is a politician who had no friends. There were lots of people who feared her, who owed her, who had contributed funds to her, who admired her intellect and her ability to get things done -- but darn few who liked her. Her own problems -- campaign finance violations and reckless driving possibly with medical causes -- created an opening for Leno. And when push came to shove, a record of disdain for community activists and bullying of allies left her with few real defenders. And so Migden succumbed to an ideologically indistinguishable replacement who is "congenial."
***

This contemporary story makes a fascinating counterpoint to the book I'm reading this week: John Jacobs' Rage for Justice: the Passion and Politics of Phillip Burton. The looming memory of Phil Burton is beginning to pass away in San Francisco politics. The Congressman, who dominated San Francisco and sometimes the entire state's Democratic politics for thirty years, died in 1983. But his influence, through his brother, recently termed out State Senator John Burton, his successor in Congress Nancy Pelosi, and even in an attenuated way Carole Migden in her role in the 1990's as Democratic party boss, (see Randy Shaw here) has been with the city for a half century.

We shouldn't forget him. Jacobs makes clear that Phil Burton was a legislator without peer. He understood the intricacies of government, law and finance as hardly anyone ever does, worked incessantly, and used his knowledge to shape some of the most progressive legislation ever dredged out of Sacramento and Washington. We should still be thanking Phil for S.S.I. (often the sole support of disabled people), the existence of the Occupational Health and Safety Administration, and vast expansions of national parks.

He was also, when he could be bothered, a superb campaign tactician. Jacobs' account of how Burton figured out in the 1950s that he could organize precinct level "get out the vote" operations targeting "big families," African Americans, and the as-yet-not-politically-mobilized San Francisco Chinese community is delightful to anyone interested in campaigns. He always based his appeal on representing underdogs and outsiders -- it is not surprising that late in his political life he was able to appeal to the emerging San Francisco gay community by championing AIDS research. He would have loved and mastered the opportunities for micro-targeting political messages made possible by contemporary voter databases.

Yet Burton had a problem: however much he fought for "the people," he had very little use for constituents. His ideal was a safe Democratic seat, properly gerrymandered so that re-election required no campaign. He was mightily offended in 1982 to have to campaign in a redrawn district in which perennial Republican San Francisco office holder Milton Marks might push him hard.

The Marks challenge ... angered Burton because he had important business in Washington and this would divert his attention. He did not even live in the district, had spent only nine days there the year before -- at that, in a suite at the Sir Francis Drake Hotel. He believed his value to the district was his record. Period. ...Early in his career he had sent press releases to ethnic media, to "big families," to every black, Asian and Hispanic lawyer, dentist, and physician in San Francisco. But he had not sent a piece of mail in years. ...such was his brand of political egotism that he could not understand why voters needed to be reminded who he was or why he mattered.

Burton won that campaign. But the stress of it probably did him in, along with too much booze, no exercise, and a life lived in a rage while seeking power in order to do justice.

Jacobs asserts, and it seems likely, that Phil Burton would have suffered miserably through the Reagan and Bush I years -- though he might have had the political smarts to put up a better fight against cutbacks to his programs than the Democrats of the 1980s mounted. He didn't care who liked him and he used his anger to fuel programmatic innovations.

But he also couldn't tolerate people who operated independently of him and he didn't make friends. And so, though he and other Democrats like him at the end of the long Democratic ascendancy that began with FDR and continued through LBJ could create good government programs, they didn't factor into their initiatives the need to create grassroots constituencies to support the programs government could offer. If liberal politicians could manipulate the levers of power forever, who needed annoying, unsophisticated idealistic advocates and constituents? And so, when Republicans stimulated a pseudo-populist grassroots backlash against racial equality and "big government," there weren't progressive constituency organizations to counter them. Too many liberal politicians found themselves out on their own limb by themselves, wondering what happened.

As we move toward again putting liberal politicians in power in Washington (and perhaps in 2010 in Sacramento), let's hope we can keep a noisy, intrusive chorus of popular organizations hollering to keep them honest -- to make them come home again, listen, and insist they need friends.

Monday, June 09, 2008

A view from Berlin:
Two wannabees and one washout



Lots of reflection on U.S. politics from Germany today. According to Der Spiegel there is no distress about seeing the last of Bush:

US President George W. Bush will arrive in Europe this week amid a trans-Atlantic spat about American chickens. ... For 11 years, American chicken has been unwanted in Europe, banned because of the chlorine solution used to disinfect the birds in the US. ...But the issue is not likely to disrupt the business at hand: Bush's ride into the political sunset. Europe is more than happy to see him off.

In the same publication, Ralf Beste and Konstantin von Hammerstein reveal a German view of McCain, who they call "a choleric hardliner." Some of the anecdotes they record need to be heard on this side of the ocean.

His fits of rage are legendary. In February 2006, he and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier became embroiled in a heated argument in a backroom at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich. Steinmeier, a Social Democrat, had suggested that Russia be treated as a difficult but indispensable partner. McCain, one of Moscow's most vocal critics, exploded and began shouting at Steinmeier. To this day, none of the diplomats present at the meeting cares to repeat McCain's choice of words. "It wasn't in keeping with the rules of politeness."

McCain's outbursts have long been the subject of ridicule among Americans attending the Munich conference. Once, when the senator arrived late for a breakfast meeting, a fellow American said: "Who do you think he declared war on this time?" And when defense experts discussed a proposal to keep missiles and nuclear warheads stored in separate locations in the future, there were those in his entourage who joked that the purpose of separate storage was to prevent a fit of rage by a President McCain from triggering a nuclear attack.



On the other hand, the Germans have caught Obamamania. They want some of the spirit of the Democratic candidate's campaign.

The dream goes something like this: What if just a small fragment of the American presidential election primary were to spill over into Germany? The enthusiasm, for example, and the vitality, energy and drama that the world's oldest democracy has presented to the global public for months? And what if German politicians would exude just a smidgen of the youthfulness and spirit of optimism that Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential candidate, seems to have in abundance?

... "Germany is Obama country," says Karsten Voigt, Berlin's coordinator for German-American cooperation, while Constanze Stelzenmüller of the German Marshall Fund in Berlin jokes: "About the only other person capable of generating this much passion and adoration here in Germany is the Dalai Lama."

I literally don't remember the last time anything about this country inspired anyone elsewhere. Do you?

Rainbow flag flies in Beirut


The Babylon & Beyond blog at the Los Angeles Times passes on this picture along with news that Helem, a Lebanese organization dedicated to the protection and empowerment of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgendered individuals, had pulled off a successful celebration of the International Day Against Homophobia.

LGBT folks told their stories, displayed their art, and asserted their pride in their community.

My friend who pointed me to the story reports that around 200 people attended.

Sunday, June 08, 2008

Political post mortems: where's the war?


This morning the New York Times managed to print a 4000 word dissection of how a freshman Senator from Illinois toppled the "inevitable" Clinton candidacy -- and never once mentions the Iraq war. Think perhaps "the newspaper of record" has something it its history it would like to forget? Perhaps a little "complicit enabling" in former Bush press flack Scott McClellan's phrase?

The Times also rounded up a roster of 13 bigwig former pols and current pundits: only one mentions Clinton's vote enabling the Iraq war. That one, Kathleen Hall Jamieson of the Annenberg Public Policy Center, asserts that Clinton failed to explain her vote properly to the presumably brainwashed electorate who should have understood that she really didn't mean to sanction an amoral pre-emptive war of choice that proved disastrous to the country.

Malcolm Crowley, a luminary of another enabling institution, the New Republic, does point out the obvous in the Los Angeles Times.

Clinton backed the Senate's 2002 Iraq war resolution. At the time, Washington wisdom held that no future Democratic presidential candidate could afford to oppose using force against Saddam Hussein. ...Although there's some evidence that Clinton may have supported the war resolution on principle, there's little question that politics made the vote easier for her and that many voters saw her as having acted out of political calculation, which helped set up Clinton to be criticized as forever calculating.

That momentous vote on Oct. 11, 2002, would set the tone for the entire Democratic primary campaign. It was Obama's opposition to the war in the fall of 2002 that enabled him to mount a credible challenge against Clinton in the first place.

It's worth noting that Clinton herself did better than the commentators. Her concession speech included ending the Iraq war as part of a laundry list of Democratic objectives.

Campaigning out among the people can be educational for these people. If the peace movement remains insistent that working for Senator Obama means working for peace and promises to keep the pressure on reluctant Democrats, we might get the action over 60 percent of us demand.

Saturday, June 07, 2008

Running women

This morning I got to photograph a few of the women running the New York Mini 10K, an event that claims the title of "the world's first road race exclusively for female participants." First run in 1972, the Mini is still going after 37 years.

This post is pretty much pure self-indulgence. I directed a women's run myself in 1982 and ran lots of them in my time. I no longer race, though I still galumph plenty of distance.


The leaders whizzed by in a bit of a blur. All three of the women the U.S. will send to the Olympic Marathon in Beijing this summer were in the lead pack. The blonde on the left is Deena Kastor; Blake Russell and Magdalena Lewy Boulet are on the right. They didn't win this one: Hilda Kibet of the Netherlands prevailed in 32:43.

But really, it wasn't the elite runners whose race tags carried their names that interested me. It was the anonymous hordes (5000 starters) who dashed or labored by on this 80 degree day.


Some of these folks are pretty fast.


And certainly not uncompetitive.




Back when I ran races, I might have been among these folks at the back.


Her T-shirt advertises a running event organized by the footwear corporation Nike to be run in locations across the globe. I have to admit, this seems like a granfalloon to me. But hey, I am quite likely to run some miles that day... And this sister was hoofing it.


There weren't a lot of non-running slogans on these shirts -- but I'll take my peace messages anywhere I see them.


You go girl!

A fire that burned everything...


Faiza Al-Arji, formerly of Baghdad, now living in Amman, Jordan, speaks in the language of prophets:

The war against Iraq was a fire that burned everything -- as we used to say: the green and the dry, in Iraq… then it started sneaking into neighboring countries, then to other world countries; not necessarily in the form of violence and explosions, but the deteriorating economy, the rising costs of living, poverty, and the shortages in employment prospects, all these are side effects of wars, which spread to hit the close and the far-off ones, touching their lives and their pockets; those selfish ignorant fools from the nations of Europe and America; the financial crisis will touch their pockets, and one day they will move in anger to ask their governments what have they done to them, to ask the corrupt decision makers what have they done to them, but then it would be too late, for then the devastation and ruin might have reached a non-controllable point…

And when the love of injustice prevails, when that becomes accepted and favored in people's hearts, they should wait for dire consequences from God; the Lord of heaven and earth… it doesn't matter whether they believe in Him or not, that's their problem…The important thing is -- that He sees and hears, His is the true judgment, leaving no small matter or big out of count….

And that who spent his life ignorant, with a blind insight, not blind eyes, shall be sorry in the end, for not putting forward any justice, or pushing back an injustice…

We ask God that we shall not be among these people, but among those who install justice and peace on this earth….
Peace be upon you…..

Read the rest.

And while you are at it, you might want to check out the stories being written by, among others, my friend Gerald Lenoir, from a People of Color Delegation currently traveling in Israel/Palestine.

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Surveillance anxieties; canvassing effectiveness


Social science researchers at Northeastern University have published a study of the movements of 100,000 cell phones (and their users) tracked over various time periods, amid howls from academic ethicists. It seems that in some "industrialized country," a cell phone provider was willing to hand over 6 million valid numbers from which the researchers picked 100,000 anonymous ones to follow through the cell relay towers they utilized. Such a study would be illegal in the U.S. according to the Federal Communications Commission.

My partner, who serves on an institutional review board at a major university for just such projects, says it would never have passed muster there. The study raises major concerns about informed consent by subjects (there wasn't any) and possible privacy issues (researchers say they ensured individual privacy.)

Of course the alarm this experiment really rings is a reminder that we voluntarily adopt technologies that provide a constant stream of information about our activities that can be monitored by numerous entities. Every Google search and website click may well be recorded somewhere for advertising and who knows what other purpose. We are constantly photographed by surveillance cameras in public places. And who knows what the government spooks are doing with our information; we know that telecom companies haven't been scrupulous about obeying the law before providing access to the authorities -- that's what the fight about FISA in Congress is about.

There is not much we can do directly about the capacity of various entities to monitor us; we need our internet; we enjoy our techno toys. But we can work to create law that protects privacy and autonomy as much as possible.
***

Interestingly, the major finding of the controversial study seems to be that most people don't have much range of movement.

Gonzalez and her team found that most mobile phone users traveled only short distances ... Also, regardless of whether a person routinely traveled to just five locations or 50, most devoted about 70 percent of their time to just two repeatedly visited destinations.

When you think about this, it doesn't really seem strange. Presumably most peoples' main locations were home -- and work or school.

But the findings do remind me of the slightly surprising finding election researchers came up with in controlled experiments aimed at increasing voter turnout.

... the closer the canvasser lives to the voter, the higher the likelihood of turning the voter out. Researchers were surprised by how strong the effect was. A canvasser from the same precinct was measurably more successful than one from a few streets further away.

We are very strongly creatures of accustomed place. It's hard to recruit people to work on elections in unaccustomed surroundings. And it turns out that even if you can get them, their effectiveness is not as great as that of locals.

Those cell phone users might not be surprised at this -- they don't go anywhere novel. Why would someone from far away come far to bother them about a candidate? Is such behavior suspicious, or just incomprehensible?

Sometimes I'm amazed that electioneering works at all -- but we keep doing it.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Primary postscript: Horse race uber alles


Click on image for a more legible version. To return to this page, use your browser's back button.

No wonder too many of us still think we don't know what politics is all about:

...coverage overall in 2008 has so far focused largely on the horse race.

Fully 78% of the stories studied between January 1 and the first week of May have focused on political matters, such as who won the latest primary.

By contrast, policy stories made up 7% of the stories, personal matters 7%, and the candidates' public record, 2%. And few major storylines stand out.

Pew Research Center.
May 29, 2008

Or rather, no wonder we are easily distracted by lies and bigoted nonsense such as "Muslims will kill Obama because he converted to Christianity" or "Hillary Clinton cackles." Most folks would have had to dig for anything but this fluff or delegate counts.

Time for some light weight matters ...

What spice are you?

You are Fennel!
You scored 50% intoxication, 50% hotness, 75% complexity, and 25% craziness!

You're a cool cat. Crisp, clean, fresh, and extremely complicated. You're like quantum physics or modern jazz. Think Niels Bohr meets Ornette Coleman. You may look normal now, but once you sprout, you look kind of, uh, funny.

The Which Spice Are You Test written by jodiesattva.

H/t Tobias Haller.
***

Where should you live?



You Should Live in the Country



You are laid back, calm, and good at entertaining yourself.

You don't need an expensive big city to keep you busy.

You'll take the peaceful life over the stressful life any day of the week.


***

I'm not sure either of these are true, but they are amusing, nonetheless. Over the next few days I'll sort out my various electronic clippings from the recent campaign and see whether I have anything worth saying...

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Primary season exhausted


Who'd have thought it possible? He's the nominee. Gotta love that such a thing could happen, before I go back to musing about how to make sure he's a better President than he'll be allowed to be without an aroused people.

With relatives, I watched them all on TV tonight, something I never do. McCain was far worse than I expected. Jeffery Toobin almost called his performance catatonic.



Hillary Clinton showed how good a candidate she's become. She would have wiped the floor with McCain. But she voted for the war and never knew what was wrong with that little act of political calculation, so she was never on my list.

Obama -- who knows? We'll see.

After watching the other two, what I noticed was how stingy Obama is with that wide grin when he's orating. He doesn’t smile easily. He demands your serious attention. Hillary is at her best, holding you with her beauty, a sort of warmth (not entirely genuine feeling, but high energy) and her pride in accomplishment. It's an attractive style. McCain was just plain pathetic. He looked as if he'd been practicing his smile for days until he could glue it on his pasty face at will, while wishing he could scratch his butt. It was more weird than offensive. Have to wonder what's wrong with the guy.

Monday, June 02, 2008

Meanwhile in Iraq ...


This isn't today's hot story, but it still matters.

A blogger who called himself "BlogIraq" went back to Baghdad to bring out his family. His friend reports:

He had an appointment that day with a guy he knew. This guy was supposed to get him some documents that prove corruption in some USAID office back in Baghdad. I don't have complete details about it. ...

His brother in-law found him dead with his friend in Mansour district in one of the small streets there. Thank God his body was found, unlike many of our friends who were killed or just vanished without a trace.

When I first setup this blog for him, he gave me the admin password of his blog and I gave him the password of mine. We agreed that whoever dies first, the other should write about it in his blog. Its just my bad luck that he died first.

Iraq is off the front pages of U.S. newspapers these days. But Iraqis are still living what we have wrought.

H/t Baghdad Treasure.

How not to raise money...


Like most public universities, my alma mater, the University of California at Berkeley, is hurting for cash these days. Investing in future citizens is not in vogue in most states, especially those that have let Republicans make taxing ourselves nearly impossible.

So, like most good nonprofits on the make, they send out glossy brochures. Since I'm away from my mail, I don't know if I got this one. But I saw a mention over at Balkinization and tracked it down.

Apparently they thought that in the interests of non-partisanship and diversity, they should showcase a Republican Asian. But Mr. Torture Memo? And then letting him whine about how disruptive it was to interrupt his academic career to go justify atrocities...I mean do "public service." Plueeez...

Public service is an important responsibility, especially for those of us who are members of a public university. Moving to Washington for a few years can be very disruptive to a professor’s research plans and personal life. But I think that it is important we make a contribution when our government calls. Personally, I would not want to hold again any of the jobs that I have held, not because I disliked them, but because it would feel like watching the same movie again.

Berkeley, you lost me here.

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Death penalty for an undocumented immigrant


This is simply obscene.

In May 2007, Victoria Arellano, a 23-year-old transgender immigrant from Mexico, was sent to a detention center in San Pedro after being arrested on a traffic charge.

Arellano, who was born a male and had come to the United States illegally as a child, had AIDS at the time of her arrest but exhibited no symptoms of the disease because of the medication she took daily. But once detained, her health began to deteriorate.She lost weight and became sick. She repeatedly pleaded with staff members at the detention center to see a doctor to get the antibiotics she needed to stay alive, according to immigrant detainees with whom Arellano shared a dormitory-style cell. But her requests were routinely ignored.

The task of caring for Arellano fell to her fellow detainees. They dampened their own towels and used them to cool her fever; they turned cardboard boxes into makeshift trash cans to collect her vomit. As her condition worsened, the detainees, outraged that Arellano was not being treated, staged a strike: They refused to get in line for the nightly head count until she was taken to the detention center's infirmary.

Officials relented, and Arellano was sent to the infirmary, then to a hospital nearby. But after two days there -- and after having spent two months at the federally operated facility -- she died of an AIDS-related infection. Her family has taken steps to file a wrongful-death claim against the federal government.

Los Angeles Times,
June 1, 2008

Immigration detainees have almost no rights. And the private contractors that run many detention centers have no incentive to spend money on caring for them. Who knew a Mexican transsexual would have a family that would sue?

California Congressmember Zoe Lofgren has introduced a bill to remedy to remedy some detainee abuses.

Ultimately, if we want these people to serve as our labor force, and we seem to, we need an equitable immigration law.

No Torture, No Exceptions


I assume this banner that I noticed on a nearby street is part of the Banners Across America project of the National Religious Campaign against Torture.

The moral issue hovering over the 2008 election is the Bush Administration’s embrace of torture as a tool of statecraft. This mistake must be thoroughly repudiated, and the nation must undertake a vow never to repeat it.

Scott Horton,
No Comment Blog,
Harper's Magazine

Horton, a human rights lawyer, points us to the No Torture, No Exceptions campaign to get both Presidential nominees on record repudiating torture. Horton says the remaining candidates, both Obama and McCain, have verbally committed to ending U.S. torture.

I'm not so confident about that. In February, McCain noisily supported a law that would have limited legal U.S. treatment of prisoners to what is allowed by the Army Field Manual -- then voted against an explicit stipulation against waterboarding. Okay, so McCain, despite personal experience, may be a phony on torture.

What about Obama? What record we have is good. He didn't just vote against the 2006 Military Commissions Act that put Guantanamo tortures under wraps in kangaroo military He actually exercised leadership. But the demands of the campaign process sometimes force him into bellicose posturing, as for example in support of Israel and by threatening Pakistan. It is hard to know what Obama would do if called upon to "prove his toughness" in response to terrorists.

No Torture, No Exceptions aims to give the candidates a reminder that stiffens their spines. They ask that we call the campaigns and let them know we expect them not only to verbally oppose torture, but also to renounce any executive orders or strained legal interpretations that legalize abuse, as well as ending renditions:
  • John McCain: Phone: (202) 224-2235 Fax: (202) 228-2862

  • Barack Obama: Phone: (202) 224-2854 Fax: (202) 228-4260
Seems simple enough.

Saturday, May 31, 2008

Political dithering while Democrats debate

There's one thing I want say about Hillary Clinton's campaign before it fizzles out: it produced this T-shirt design. The notion that a woman pictured as having hips could make a serious run for the Presidency is as amazing and gratifying to me as the inconceivable reality that more and more of country seems on the verge of recognizing gay marriage. We all owe the sister, even if we don't much like her.

That said, I nonetheless have to work to understand what Clinton's dwindling core of supporters are hanging on to. Fortunately I know some, so what follows is not entirely blowing smoke.

As I've blogged before, many good progressive Clinton supporters are just now learning that she has lost. The shock is still real for many.

And though Clinton has lost, and a good number of us political junkies have known this would be the outcome since sometime in March, the loss is very narrow. Clinton's claims that more popular votes were cast for her are based on some phony accounting (she drops some caucus states like Washington from the calculations). And there's no rational argument that she did not lose among voting delegates to the Democratic convention. Obama has won a narrow margin among pledged and superdelegates. But the margin is small and the contest close.

Early on I found Obama's supporters irritating, willing to embrace their guy with what seemed gushing, baseless enthusiasm. I still think folks who believe Obama is promising a real break from the imperial, corporate consensus are being naïve. But I believe the logic of defeating McCain from Obama's political and identity position will tend to move him in directions I like. And the more naïve Obama supporters will learn -- they'll have to. The rest of us will live to fight another day under an Obama administration.

Meanwhile Clinton partisans are getting the news and adjusting to it: the Field poll in California now shows that state's voters reversing the preferences they expressed on Super Tuesday: among Democrats, Obama tops Clinton by a margin of 51-38. Even in New York, half of Democrats now want Clinton to end her campaign.

The holdouts pretty clearly are white women of a certain age. According to a recent Pew poll,

Obama's favorable rating among voters has slipped eight points since late February, from 59% to 51% in the current survey. ...

Obama's slipping image is in some measure a negative reaction from frustrated Clinton supporters. Currently, just 46% of those who support Clinton for the nomination say the party will unite behind Obama if he is the nominee. In March, 58% of Clinton supporters said the party would rally behind Obama if he is the nominee.

Recent declines in Obama's image have been pronounced among whites -- especially white women. Currently, just 43% of white women express a positive opinion of Obama, down from 56% in late February.

This makes me sad. As a woman for whom feminism -- the revolutionary belief that women are human -- is central to my being, I'm sorry that my sisters are unable to recognize that a woman they identify with could lose in a fair fight. Come on folks, the fact that it was a fair fight in which the man and the woman played by the same rules is progress...

Yet I can sympathize with this excellent description of why some women feel so hurt by the outcome of the Democratic primaries:

If they have worked outside the home, they have seen this movie before: the younger, charismatic man gets the job (or the promotion, or the account), while the older, more qualified woman gets passed over.

...They liked Bill, they like Hillary, and they thought she would do a great job. They are frustrated that millions of voters picked the hot shot over the smart, hard-working woman. In their minds, Hillary deserved the nomination, but voters picked someone less prepared for the job.

To add insult to injury, many of them now believe that they will not live to see a woman president.

Of course this is painful. Having just read A Team of Rivals, Doris Kearns Goodwin's opus about Abraham Lincoln, I imagine the Clinton folks feel about Obama the way that the abolitionist William Seward's supporters must have felt when the unknown from Illinois was nominated. Then the thought was, who's this unsophisticated, inexperienced frontiersman who stands for nothing, but who has defeated such an accomplished, obvious nominee? I'm not predicting that Obama will turn out to be a Lincoln (probably the most important President we ever had), but a nomination this unexpected has occurred before in our history.
***

One of the signal features of this year's Democratic primaries has been a significant change in the ages of who is voting. I've been working professionally in elections since 1989 and we could always confidently say to our staffs something like: the group most likely to vote are 50 and older. Not anymore. In the Democratic primaries, we've see a dramatically different picture:

  • Weighted by the turnout in each state, voters aged 65+ made up 18.0 percent of the electorate in 2008 as compared with 23.3 percent of the electorate in 2004; a 22 percent decrease.
  • Weighted by the turnout in each state, voters aged 45+ made up 60.9 percent of the electorate in 2008 as compared with 67.9 percent of the electorate in 2004; a 10 percent decrease.
  • Weighted by the turnout in each state, voters aged 18-29 made up 14.5 percent of the electorate in 2008 as compared with 9.4 percent of the electorate in 2004; a 53 percent increase.
Did the number of older voters increase in absolute terms? Of course -- since something like three times as many Democrats cast ballots in the primaries this year. The turnout of midgets of mixed French Creole/Albanian ancestry also increased in absolute terms. But the average age of a Democratic voter decreased from about 52 in 2004 to 49 in 2008.
Big movements in who votes don't happen often. That's a huge movement. We are seeing something new -- perhaps what the country needs to meet the challenges of global warming and declining empire.

Update: while I was dithering, the Democratic rules committee has reached compromises on Florida and Michigan that give Clinton a net additional twenty-four delegates -- not enough to overcome Obama's advantage, possibly enough to stop the food fight. Let's hope this will be over next week ...

Friday, May 30, 2008

View from my window:
New York City


Click on the picture for a larger view. Use your browser's "back" button to return to this page.


The light was extraordinary that evening.


Sunset over the Hudson River.

McCain: is he really that bad?


Yes. Read all about it.

McCain says overturn the law that legalized abortion
He's all for taking the choice whether to have a child away from women.

McCain Defends Bush's Iraq Strategy
He thinks invading Iraq was a great idea.

McCain in NH: Would Be "Fine" To Keep Troops in Iraq for "A Hundred Years"
He thinks occupying Iraq forever would be great too.

Senate passes expanded GI bill despite Bush, McCain opposition
He thinks the only way to keep soldiers in the military (in Iraq?) is to deny them veteran's benefits.

John McCain Votes to Filibuster Minimum Wage Hike
Why should his rich buddies have to pay the help enough to live on? That's theft from the rich!

McCain economic policy shaped by lobbyist
He doesn't know much about economics, so he got a guy who lobbies for a Swiss bank that got over its head in bad mortgages to write an "economic policy" for him.

Bush, McCain plug Social Security
Sure, let's privatize Social Security. Good thing Bush and McCain didn't get away with this one before the economy went sour. A lot of people would be a lot worse off.

McCain blasts Obama’s and Clinton’s attacks on NAFTA
It was such a great idea to send U.S. jobs overseas while putting Mexican farmers out of business so they'd come here and work for less than minimum wage.

McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
After all, we can't afford to send sick kids to doctors -- we need your tax money for our wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and anywhere else that pisses McCain off...
***

This list of articles comes from Chris Bowers of Open Left. He's urging people to set up enduring hyperlinks to them so as to ensure that they turn up when people search the web for information on McCain.

I'm happy to do my bit by posting the list here. The selection of articles is very good. And I'll then go on to my other concerns, in addition to defeating this warmonger in November.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Afghanistan: a multilateral lost war


Afghan soldiers flee during the attack and assassination attempt on President Hamid Karzai in Kabul on April 27: The scene had disintegrated into scores of people ducking and waiting, running and cowering. DER SPIEGEL / Tina Hager / Agentur Focus

Ullrich Fichtner wants the readers of the German newspaper Der Spiegel to understand that NATO troops can't deliver peace in Afghanistan. It's just not going to happen. And the various generals, missions, and embassies who are feeding their stories to the Western media are gilding the lily, if they are not outright lying.

According to the speeches and statements Western military officials, diplomats and politicians are constantly churning out, the security situation has improved substantially, the military successes are obvious and the Taliban are as good as defeated. But peace and Afghanistan, say the Afghanis when speaking to a domestic audience, are still two incompatible words.

Last year, 1,469 bombs exploded along Afghan roads, a number almost five times as high as in 2004. There were 8,950 armed attacks on troops and civilian support personnel, 10 times more than only three years earlier. One hundred and thirty suicide bombers blew themselves up in 2007. There were three suicide bombings in 2004. ...

The United States and Europe have stumbled their way into a new type of international war, one in which all of today's global and regional powers are involved. What will happen to NATO if it fails in the first out-of-area mission in its history? And where will the UN be if this ambitious nation-building project is ultimately a disappointment?

Fichtner's story is long, wandering through a opium fields, to a British military outpost, to a talk with an Afghan woman governor of the country's poorest province, a place with 99 percent illiteracy to the glittering cabarets for foreigners in Kabul. And all the stories go toward the same theme -- foreigners put a positive spin on violent conflict while Afghans just try to get by.

Fichtner ends his Afghan travels with an account of the assassination attempt shown above. Determined gunmen not only almost killed President Hamid Karzai, they also broke up the celebration of one of the country's national holidays. The U.S. ambassador tried to spin the reporter.

The next day, US Ambassador Wood will say: "The whole thing was over within 120 seconds." This is the sugarcoated version for the Western public. The people in Afghanistan, however, know that in reality the shooting continued for 25 or 30 minutes, and that the attackers used bazookas, machine guns and grenades. Soon there were helicopters in the air and the assassination attempt turned into a battle, with the presidential guard returning fire, eventually killing the three attackers and chasing three of their accomplices through the city.

These are the images of war in downtown Kabul, in the heart of Afghanistan, where half the world has spent the last seven years trying to bring peace to an oppressed country, and where the fighting continues, in Afghanistan's valleys, mountains, cities and deserts, on many fronts hard and soft, day after day.

Do read the whole thing.

Grandmothers and vets out against the war


They've been there from 4:30-5:30 every Wednesday for 230 weeks now. Since January 14, 2004, members of Grandmothers Against the War, joined by members of Veterans for Peace, have kept up a witness for peace alongside Rockefeller Center in New York City.


Half a block away, Prometheus floats over a bar full of tourists under a sea of flags.


But these folks have a simple message.




"The surge has failed. It's a civil war over there. Bring them home alive!" Seems like a good message.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

The making of a mature President


Recently I wrote thousands of words about the history and problems of the U.S. peace movement. (See sidebar) Booman summarized his description how the peace movement stalled in a few sentences.

...we've won the argument over the war. We won the argument but we didn't win enough political power to end the war. And that means we all just have to sit in a holding pattern, waiting for a new president. ...

I can kind of mark the day that the antiwar movement died. It was the day that MoveOn.org ran their strategically moronic BetrayUs advertisement in the New York Times. That was the day that the Democratic Party (which is, after all, one of the two Establishment parties in this country) had to divorce itself from the movement to end the war. MoveOn.org showed a profound misunderstanding of the power structures that govern Washington. The Democratic Party, as an institution, was never going to countenance the vilification of our most important general in the field. Nor will they ever fully come to grips with the profound moral horrors they have been complicit in allowing. The Democratic Party is merely a vehicle for change. It can only be moved slowly and it will always gravitate back to the center.

He thinks the most important work that people who wanted peace have done in the last eight years has been to begin to take hold of some of the levers of power within the Democratic party, thereby moving part of the establishment a little to the left.

I don't disagree with him. The current political season will test how enduring those accomplishments may be. Will there be a President Obama? Will a President Obama seek to centralize all "progressive" tendencies within the Democratic Party under his leadership? We've seen his campaign discouraging donations to para-campaign organizations around the margins of the party. If he wins, will that mean that he'll try to subsume all the energies of his supporters in what will be his party?

One the hardest truths for people in power to remember is that having a noisy, demanding, outsider grassroots constituency helps them govern. This is so even when they are getting jacked up and called names.. This is something Obama should understand from his days as an organizer. Pushy people give cover to a progressive politician to get things done.

But this is tough to remember when being lionized as a President Obama certainly will be if he ends the long Republican ascendancy. I'll judge his maturity, which his opponent so questions, as much on how he responds his annoying, impolitic base as on any other criteria.