Thursday, April 12, 2007
Today MoveOn announced the results of its poll subsequent to the Town Hall on Iraq. From the perspective of an organizer, there's a very interesting discrepancy between the results from all MoveOn voters, including those who only read about the event or viewed some of the YouTube videos and then voted and the results from only the participants in the house meetings.
Here's the all voter breakdown:
Update for Gretchen in comments and others who can't read the small type:
All MoveOn votes cast:
Obama-28, Edwards-25, Kucinich-17, Richardson-12, Clinton-11, Biden-6, Dodd-1
Here are the votes from the smaller segment that actually experienced the poll as an event among their neighbors:
Edwards-24, Richardson-21, Obama-19, Kucinich-15, Biden-10, Clinton-7, Dodd-4
Richardson soared among this sub-segment. Edwards and Obama were strong in both, but traded the top spot. Kucinich, Clinton, Biden and Dodd all trailed by somewhat similar margins in each.
Clearly that very careful and concerned subset of people who were willing to go to a public meeting to hear the candidates found something attractive in Richardson when exposed to him in that collective setting. Folks who merely engaged with this poll online probably didn't give Richardson a viewing.
Chris Bowers at MyDD provides data on which YouTube videos were viewed:
Looks like only the top two really got a chance with folks whose exposure was entirely online (making the assumption that Clinton's internet-based support is pretty small and inelastic.)
For organizers, this ought re-teach the lesson that turning people out to events is worth the enormous energy it takes, because the experience does change them.
For the Richardson campaign, it certainly means they've got to somehow get their guy in front of more people!
Posted by janinsanfran at 1:53 PM