Happens every primary season

Paul Waldman, an opinion writer at the Washington Post, took a whack at a hardy perennial feature of primary season among Democrats. One set, labeled "centrists" by journalists, complains that progressives will force candidates so far to the left that they won't be able to win a general election. Another set says that voters will be uninspired by a nice safe candidate who offers only small incremental improvements in their lives. Waldman asserts Democratic centrists want to say politics is simple. They’re wrong. 

Exhibit A for Waldman is the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate primary contest between "moderate" Congressman Conor Lamb and Lt. Governor John Fetterman. It's not going the way some Democratic donors think it should. Fetterman is ahead in polls, not their guy Lamb.

The [Democratic donor] super PAC’s analysis is simple: Lamb is more centrist than Fetterman; Fetterman is winning because people don’t understand that; eventually they will, even if it doesn’t happen until the general election; so primary voters have to be persuaded to get with the program now and back the centrist in the race.  

The trouble is that while the Pennsylvania Senate primary might involve ideology, it isn’t just about ideology. With all due respect to Conor Lamb, he’s pretty indistinguishable from a thousand congressional candidates who have come before: clean-cut, solid résumé, just the kind of person you picture when you think “congressman.” 

Fetterman, on the other hand, stands out, from his imposing stature (6-foot-8) to his tattoos to his sartorial choices (he’s one of those shorts-in-the-winter guys) to his unashamed advocacy of issues such as marijuana legalization. Might his liberalism be a vulnerability in a closely divided state? It’s possible, but it’s also possible that his long record of concern for people in distressed areas of the state will help him win votes in places many Democrats don’t. Some people love Fetterman because of who he is, and some people don’t. 

... Lamb has discovered that reminding everyone he’s a moderate is taking him only so far. The argument between centrists and liberals might never be resolved, but don’t believe anyone who tells you the answer is as simple as these moderates believe.

Some comments: National Democratic leaders will almost always prefer the uninspiring "centrists" in these contests -- because should they get elected, they'll be a lot easier to work with. I bet I know who Chuck Schumer would prefer to deal with in his caucus.

The "moderate" candidates will almost always have an easier time raising money. People with big money don't want the boat rocked. Bernie proved you can get around this with small donors, but non-standard candidates will always face a high bar. 

And, from years of canvassing and working get-out-the-vote, votes aren't very attuned to these divides. These days, party label accounts for most vote choices. Among the sliver who really are making a choice, they want to feel like this person cares about people like me. That can go in as many directions as there are voters. 

I don't have a horse in the PA Senate race. Lamb was a sterling candidate who won a formerly Republican House seat in a very tough race in 2018. He was what that set of voters wanted. Fetterman is more a wild card, but he has won statewide before. The voters will decide May 17.

Here's Fetterman's introductory ad: