Checking in on Ukraine's war

Donald Trump may blunder about, mostly just licking Vladimir Putin's ass, and pretending he's ending the war of the Russian invasion of Ukraine -- but as in most things Trump, the reality is elsewhere. And there are multiple reports that indicate that 1) Europe knows it must step up in order to defend itself from the smothering Russian offensive and 2) Ukraine is far more united and able to fight on without much US help than we've been told.

On the first point, Finnish security expert Minna Ålander explains: 

What often escapes the public’s notice – partially because so much is happening and it’s hard to keep track of all the news items – is that Ukraine’s defence industry is being swiftly integrated into the emerging European Defence Industrial and Technological Base (EDIB). Most importantly, it is not just charity but a win-win situation: Ukraine’s self-sufficiency is improved by increased own production and European defence companies get in on the latest innovations from the Ukrainian battlefield. A year ago, in May 2024, the EU hosted the first EU-Ukraine Defence Industries Forum in a series of multilateral defence industrial events that the government of Ukraine launched in 2023. In September 2024, the EU also opened a Defence Innovation Office in Kyiv.

In a proper Orwellian sense, the EU has mobilised €11.1 bn from the European Peace Facility for military support for Ukraine, and has an additional €50 bn Ukraine Facility to bolster Ukraine’s resilience, to support its EU integration process, and de-risk investment in Ukraine. The support is both grant- and loan-based, including a €35 billion loan to be repaid with revenue from the frozen Russian assets. ...

By working together with Ukraine, European companies are not only increasing Ukraine’s own production capacity but also learning directly from Ukraine’s battlefield experience – something that will help Europe not only to replace US capabilities, but to think ahead.

But what of the long suffering Ukrainians, now engaged in a war in which their longtime US backers are changing sides? Because they have no choice -- no chance of national or even personal survival if they back off -- they fight on. The Atlantic reporter Anne Applebaum has made the pilgrimage to Ukraine recently. 

... Ukrainians believe the war will continue, and the prospect no longer scares them. Partly this is because they have no other choice. Unlike the Russians, who could withdraw from the battlefield and go home at any time, the Ukrainians cannot withdraw from the battlefield. If they do, they will lose their civilization, their language, and their freedom. Under Russian occupation, the mayor of Lviv and the journalists at the Lviv Media Forum would end up in prison or dead, just like their murdered and imprisoned colleagues in Russian-occupied Ukraine today.

More to the point, Ukrainians are confident that they can continue fighting, even without the same level of American support. The Ukrainian army is not retaking territory, as it did in the autumn of 2022, nor does it have plans for a major new counteroffensive. But neither is it losing. The tanks and heavy equipment that Ukraine needed from others don’t matter as much as they did two years ago. The Ukrainians still need American intelligence and anti-missile defenses to protect civilians in their cities. They still get weapons and ammunition from Europe. But on the frontline, this conflict has become a drone war, and Ukraine both produces drones—more than 2 million last year, probably twice that many this year—and builds software and systems to run them. In February, a Ukrainian unit deployed the first of what it hopes will be several hundred fighting robots. Last month, a Ukrainian sea drone took down a Russian airplane. One brigade has designed a drone that can reliably take out a Shahed, the Iranian drones that are used to kill Ukrainian civilians.

... The results are visible on the ground. Remember, if you can, the panic that accompanied news reports from Ukraine nine months ago: The city of Pokrovsk was about to fall, a calamity that many believed might precipitate the collapse of the whole front line. But Pokrovsk did not fall. The Russians continue to attack that region: On May 15 alone, Ukrainian soldiers based on the Pokrovsk front line repelled 74 separate assaults and offensive actions. But in recent months, the front line has hardly moved. ...

This is a gift link to Applebaum's story of her visit. Well worth your time.