Prediction: health care will again move to center in the election

Remember the seemingly endless Democratic presidential primary season that ended with Joe Biden suddenly wiping out all the others? Probably not. Between COVID-19 and the filmed murder of George Floyd, most feeling people have had so much run over us that the memory is indistinct.

But at least one development of the last week should remind of us of what that long intraparty squabble was ostensibly about. Presidential aspirants argued and proposed and postured for months about how they would ensure everybody had access to health care. Today millions of people are out of work in a country that ties access to medical services to having a job -- in the midst of a pandemic. And it looks like voters do still care, even in states that seem less than obvious.

Dylan Scott at Vox surveyed social scientists about a recent, seemingly unlikely, development:

"For the second time this summer, voters in a solidly Republican state have decided now is the moment to expand Medicaid coverage through the Affordable Care Act.

"Missouri voters passed a ballot initiative to expand Medicaid during Tuesday’s primary elections; 53 percent of voters supported the measure and 47 percent opposed it. That vote comes about a month after Oklahoma voters also decided to expand Medicaid via ballot referendum by less than 1 percentage point. 

"... Crises have a way of changing political attitudes. ... right now, disapproval of the Affordable Care Act is at a low ebb, with just 36 percent of Americans saying they have an unfavorable view of the law in the Kaiser Family Foundation’s July 2020 poll.  

"It is too soon to say whether any shift in the public’s policy preferences will be permanent. But we shouldn’t be surprised if a crisis as disruptive as the coronavirus pandemic leaves a long-lasting mark on our politics."

In the Los Angeles Times, David Lauter points out the advantage which Democrats gain by responding to the public's health care fears and hopes.

"Democrats have learned over the past decade that complex efforts at market-based solutions to expanding healthcare, like the Affordable Care Act’s subsidized marketplaces for low- and middle-income families who lack job-based coverage, don’t work politically on two levels: They fail to win over the Republicans they were designed to attract and they aren’t as popular with voters as straightforward expansions of public programs. 

"Biden opposes Medicare for All, but if he wins in November, some form of Medicaid for Many — a public option built around further expansion of the program — will likely form a key part of his administration’s program. 

"... if the spread of the virus slows, which President Trump‘s campaign strategists hope will allow him to start a comeback, he will still face a host of issues on which he was vulnerable long before the pandemic began. His efforts to repeal healthcare coverage for millions of Americans remain high on the list."

This is not the terrain on which Donald Trump wants to fight this election. He'll try to distract. He'll promise a “tremendous healthcare plan,” as he did just two weeks ago, a fantasy solution. He'll claim to protect people with pre-existing conditions, such as having been infected by COVID -- but legislators of his party has voted to repeal these protections over and over. And Trump supports a lawsuit to kill off all of Obamacare. Trump's magic health care fix will never happen. 

If Dems are smart, they'll keep hammering on a promise to make certain all of us can go to doctors. People need and want assurance of health care access; the virus keeps the need fresh in our minds.

It's on all of us to make sure Trump does not escape his failures -- his failure against the coronavirus, his failure to deliver on delusional promises.