We need to admit to ourselves that, though everyday life and its pleasures and anxieties flow on, this country is now a party to a war ignited by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian successes in halting their overweening neighbor -- and admiration for Ukrainians' effectual valor against all odds -- has drawn us in deeply. We've signed on to be an independent Ukraine's supply depot.
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| Mural in Cardiff, Wales. By My Dog Sighs |
Whose victory?, I wonder. If there is any victory, it must belong to the Ukrainians and perhaps their European neighbors, not to their rich supporters. For citizens of this country, the political project must include deterring our government from encouraging fighting to the last Ukrainian ... to support Ukrainians in preserving the political and moral space to define their own war despite their dependence on us. They are plenty tough and smart. Are we?
As I've reluctantly realized, it's a war I can support, tentatively and even prayerfully. The war itself is scary -- and finding myself feeling support is also scary. I know atrocities lead to more atrocities. I also know imperial aggression, the stomping of vulnerable nations and peoples by the powerful, when I see it. My country has been aggressing for most of my life, in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq ... Because I didn't like it when we did it, it is not hard for me to recognize Russia's imperial aggression now.
As Paul Krugman warns, "there's a whiff of 1914" about all this. The reference is to the first 20th century European war, World War I we call it, into which belligerents seemingly stumbled heedlessly. Yes, we could all blunder into World War III ...
The historical analogy that leaps to my mind is France's support for the American Revolution of 1776. Those uppity American colonists -- my ancestors -- wouldn't have worn down the mighty British empire without French support. France was just playing power politics, weakening a competitor empire. But the consequence was a chance for a new nation, the barely United States of America, to get off the ground. (The follow-on from that French adventure -- via the powerful notions of liberty, equality, fraternity -- proved too much for the French metropole a few years later in 1789.)
The British academic and security policy analyst Anatol Lieven offers a reminder:
... During the Cold War, no U.S. president ever forgot that Washington and Moscow between them have the ability to destroy human civilization and even put an end to the human race. For this reason, first the Truman and then the Eisenhower administration adopted the strategy of “containing” the Soviet Union in Europe, and not trying to “roll back” Soviet power through armed support for anti-Soviet insurgencies in eastern Europe.
Our leaders of today should remember this. They should also remember that where both sides engaged in proxy warfare outside Europe, the consequences were disastrous for themselves and still more disastrous for the wretched people on the ground who became the pawns of these great power agendas. Have we really learned nothing from history?Tom Nichols is a deeply knowledgeable U.S. expert on Russia who has been teaching at the U.S. Naval War College for the last twenty-five years. He too has warnings, most especially about not letting ourselves get too caught up on in the emotions that go with this war. Via Twitter.
If Putin insanely decides that this is a war for the survival of Russia, then we are faced with World War III. Not the rhetorical World War III loosely talked about now, but the real thing, including the deaths of hundreds of millions - in both conventional and nuclear war.
This could happen because of how badly the Russian military and Putin have screwed everything up. But if the only alternative is "surrender Ukraine and then all of Europe," then the world will have to fight it. It will be Russia's choice. There is no policy that will stop it.
There are alternatives and Putin may yet satisfy himself with his limited gains. But those of you saying "bring it on" don't know what you're talking about, and you don't understand what all of us will endure, together, if the Russians are stupid enough to go this road.
The choice to escalate now rests in Moscow. It would be one more ridiculous gamble added to a pile of idiotic strategic miscalculations, but all we can do is help Ukraine defend itself and make clear that there is no day that ends better for Russia than the day before.
But if you're an American whose biggest gripe right now is the price of gas or your student loans or inflation, I understand that we live day to day, but this is the most serious thing in the world and you should be paying attention to it.
I'm already seeing a lot of responses piling on here about "Glory to Ukraine" and "Putin has to go" and the usual stuff. You can just stop that right now; the only thing that matters is ending this war before it finally burns out of control. Diplomats are doing their best.
This war will end with a victory, in the sense that Ukraine will continue to survive. What compromises Zelensky will have to make, I can neither predict nor advise. But there will almost certainly be compromises. ...
This war, including our war, demands a level of seriousness and humane maturity that has not been the hallmark of the U.S. polity in recent years. May peace eventually prevail.
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| Graffiti in the San Francisco Mission District |
The only ones that are winning are those who sell arms.
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