Hoping for a good outcome for China's COVID test

Just about every source through which most of us consume international news keeps reminding us that contemporary China is a pretty awful place for human rights (think what seems a genocide of Muslim Uyghurs) and freedoms (think the destruction of democratic elements in Hong Kong and mainland China's nationalist threat to democratic Taiwan).

As Xi Jinping’s Zero COVID strategy appears to be failing, Americans and Europeans might think we have license to gloat. We suffered -- the Chinese can too.

I'm grateful to Adam Tooze for pointing out the conundrums and costs any Chinese government would face as Omicron breaks through and millions of Chinese people have had enough of ongoing tight restrictions.

A dictator’s embarrassment is generally a cause for celebration. But what if it also threatens a national tragedy and a bona fide global problem? ... now, only weeks after Xi’s triumphant party Congress, the zero covid policy is in crisis. The disease is spreading and China’s population is no longer willing to put up with it. ... One must profoundly admire the courage of the protestors and sympathize with the outrage and desperation triggered by successive waves of capricious lockdowns. ...

... [But] what is the policy alternative? The fact that abandoning zero COVID would be a blow to Xi does not make that the right policy. The dilemma facing Beijing goes beyond the question of Xi’s legitimacy. As ludicrous as zero COVID has come to seem, as oppressive and capricious as its intrusions are in the everyday lives of Chinese people, it has saved huge numbers of lives. And if Beijing were to follow the demand to abandon the policy, this would likely result in a public health disaster not just for the CCP but for China.

Omicron is less dangerous than Delta but its infectiousness is extremely high. If the pandemic is allowed to run unchecked, hundreds of millions of people will become infected. Even with a low rate of severe cases, China’s medical system will be placed under impossible strain, not just in a handful of cities as in 2020, but across the country. Hundreds of thousands of vulnerable people, if not more, will likely die.

It bears repeating that though China may be a remarkable economic success story, it is still a middle-income country and its welfare net and health care provision are fragile, especially in the countryside, where hundreds of millions of people still live. ... the figure of between 500,000 and 1.5 million deaths are predicted by most studies would ... be a shattering disaster.

... There are no simple answers. Xi’s regime is weighing huge risks. Anyone who imagines that that can be a matter of indifference to the rest of the world or is tempted to indulge in Schadenfreude has not learned the first lesson taught in February 2020 - what happens in Wuhan does not stay in Wuhan. ...

We adopt obliviousness to the human cost of China's peril at this moment at our own peril -- moral and material. Much as we loathe the Chinese government's abuse of its people, we should be hoping it can find a relatively gentle path forward as the coronavirus escapes the temporary fence the zero covid policy built for the last couple of years.