You can't win if you don't run

There's been plenty of talk about how the 2018 midterm elections are drawing women and other first time candidates into the electoral fray. Results of primaries in safe Democratic seats pretty much assure that there will be Muslim women, and Native women, and even young socialist women in the next Congress. Will all those old guys in suits know what hit them? I sure hope the new people in the room will change the dynamics in Washington.

Daily Kos Elections pointed out another indicator of this Democratic surge.

Democrats have a nominee in 432 of 435 congressional districts, the most they've contested since the 1974 Watergate wave, when Team Blue had a candidate in all but a single district. On the other hand, Republicans have left 39 House seats without a nominee, and such a large disparity, based on past history, points to a Democratic-wave environment this fall.

It may not seem that the sheer number of candidates would matter much -- aren't many of the seats Democrats are running in hopeless Republican strongholds? Well, yes, so they seem. But what's happening in New York's 27th Congressional District outside of Buffalo shows why a political party that is serious about winning should always field a candidate for every contested office.

Chris Collins, a Republican, has held this House seat since 2013. It's true Republican turf -- exurbs and rural counties clustered outside two cities, Buffalo and Rochester, whose urban culture and demographics are very separate from their surroundings. Places like this usually vote Republican. Collins was one of Donald Trump's earliest backers is the House; his district voted 60-35 percent for Trump. There was no reason to think the seat was competitive. Then Collins was arrested in August. Apparently he used insider knowledge to enrich his family -- or so Department of Justice prosecutors charge.

Fortunately, Democrats didn't just give up on this seat, in June nominating a Grand Island Town Commissioner for the seemingly hopeless task of running against one of Congress' wealthiest members. Now that candidate, Nate McMurray just might have a chance to pull off a huge upset. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, which handicaps Congressional races, has just moved its evaluation of the contest to "Lean Republican." That doesn't mean they predict that McMurray will knock off Collins, but they have decided Collins' legal troubles give the challenger a fighting chance.

You can't win if you don't run. McMurray is running.