Friday, October 19, 2018

What's enthusiasm? Could the answer be campaign cash?

This poll found exceptional enthusiasm about voting in the midterms, especially among Democrats, young people and people of color. Well good. If this is true, we'll elect some better politicians in a lot of places. But as a person who works in elections, I'm cautious about professions of excitement about voting. Because people think voting is something they should do, they sometimes declare an intent to participate -- but somehow don't get around to acting. So we'll see ...

But there is some measurable evidence of Democratic voters' enthusiasm about the election in fundraising numbers recently made public.

Democrats outraised Republicans in fully 93 of the 100 most competitive seats, as shown in this map. And the hauls themselves are extraordinary—at least for one side. Sixty-two Democrats in the top 100 races raised more than $1 million each in the third quarter, with only two being incumbents. In the many years we’ve been tracking this sort of data, we’ve never seen figures anything like this. (By contrast, only 16 Republicans brought in over $1 million—14 of them incumbents.)

Of course, money is far from the only factor that will determine who wins the House next month. But these numbers do ensure that Democrats will have the resources they need to get their message out over the stretch run. And the enormous upsurge in Democratic fundraising, powered extensively by grassroots donors, shows an intense enthusiasm that is not matched on the Republican side.

House Democrats awash in cash, Daily Kos Elections

CalMatters looked at the extraordinary cash flow in California. This too is a marker of Democratic enthusiasm, an enthusiasm rising up from the grassroots.

In campaigns, big money players get the most attention. But Democrats running in California’s seven most competitive congressional districts are vastly out-raising Republicans in small-dollar donations, a review of campaign disclosures shows.

Through Sept. 30, Democratic candidates running in the seven GOP-held seats where Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in 2016 raised $40 million to the Republicans’ $18.7 million, filings compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics show.

In donations of under $200, Democrats raised $6.4 million, almost 10 times the $671,000 raised by Republicans raised through the first three quarters of 2018.

... candidates can return to small-dollar donors multiple times to help fuel their campaign efforts, ranging from television ads to get-out-the-vote drives. They also know that people who give money vote and volunteer, if not for them then for candidates in their home districts.

There's genuine enthusiasm in all that small donation giving. The election will prove whether it can be turned into actual votes.

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