The diligent election nerds at DailyKos Elections have completed their calculation of the 2020 presidential results for all 435 House seats nationwide. That is, if the district elected a Democrat, did it also go for Biden? -- or vice versa.
Obviously the most competitive seats next time around are those which show a split decision. They summarize:
Click to enlarge.
Biden carried 224 congressional districts while Donald Trump prevailed in 211. That's very close to the 222-213 split between House Democrats and Republicans that emerged from the November elections, which is due to the fact that both parties occupy a similar number of so-called "crossover" districts: Seven Democrats hold seats that Trump won while nine Republicans represents districts that went for Biden.
The number of crossover districts—16 in total—is extremely low by historical standards ...
They've been doing these calculations every two years since 2009.
In California, two Biden seats won by Republicans in 2020 stand out as targets.
- District 21 (David Valadao) is located in the Central Valley west of Fresno. It's gone back and forth between the parties based on turnout for the last couple of cycles; Democrats need to find a way to reliably turn out the registered base here.
- District 25 (Mike Garcia) in eastern Orange County went Democratic in 2018, then flipped Republican by less than a 500 votes in November 2020. Garcia stands out as having voted against certifying Electoral College results on January 6 and then against impeachment. That is, he has signed on with the election fraud hoax and the sedition caucus. The losing candidate in 2020 was Christy Smith. Don't know whether there will be a contested primary for the Democratic nomination next year.
I'd love not to think about the next election, but if we've learned anything over the last few years, it has been we can't leave these matters to the professional politicians.
No comments:
Post a Comment