Will we recall Gov. Gavin?

It looks more and more as if Californians may face a recall election of Governor Gavin Newsom, probably in November of this year.

Having lived through the Gray Davis recall in 2003, I'll pass along a few observations:

• It looks as if the standard collection of right wing kooks -- "vaccine opponents, QAnon followers and other denizens of the far fringes of American politics" --  started this effort.  It's their 6th(!) since Newsom's election in 2018. They have achieved lift-off thanks to an extended signature gathering period and the frustrations of the pandemic. We'll find out by the end of April whether they've collected enough valid signatures, but they seem to be on track. 

• In November 2020, Trump won 34 percent of the vote in California. To oust Newsom, recall proponents have to find a lot more voters than that. Are independents mad enough to go for this? Will Dems stay home?

• Despite Newsom's fumbling and bumbling of coronavirus measures -- and his unmasked dinner with lobbyists at the French Laundry while we sheltered in place -- his popularity is still around 50 percent. 

• A recall election has two parts: one vote on whether we want to toss the incumbent and, if the first passes, a free-for-all vote to replace him. In 2003, 135 people threw their names in the hat (the filing fee is cheap) and Arnold Schwarzenegger won with 48 percent of the vote. 

• You can't beat something with nothing. So far, only the Republican Newsom demolished in 2018 (John Cox) and the former Republican mayor of San Diego (Kevin Faulconer) have offered themselves as replacement governors. There will be many more if this comes to pass.   

• A recall election is, officially, just an ordinary state election. This means that other measures -- initiative propositions -- can appear on the recall ballot. I know that because in 2003 we fought off Prop. 54 which would have prevented California authorities from collecting the demographic information which tells us that Black and Latinx communities are getting hammered by COVID. As far as I can figure out from the California Secretary of State's website the only initiative that might be ready to go this fall (and that may not be required to go to a vote until 2022) is a tobacco industry effort to repeal the ban on flavored tobacco products.

California's conventional pundits don't think a recall would succeed. Dan Morain (who wrote the inevitable book on Kamala Harris) gives a recall low odds:

Voters are cranky now. That could change by the fall if people are vaccinated, kids are back in school and the economy is on the mend. If all that happens, Newsom could rightly take credit and emerge stronger politically. And in California, the party of Trump would continue its downward slide.

I've never been a Gavin Newsom fan, but I cannot imagine the circumstances in which I would vote to recall him ...