This graphic is driving me nuts. Do click on it to get the full impression.
The Wall Street Journal asked potential voters in the seven states generally believed to be where the fall Presidential election will be decided: "Has the U.S. economy, or your state's economy, gotten better or worse in the last two years?"
This shows the result: in all those states, more voters than not thought their own local, familiar, economy had gotten better. But overall, by a lot, they thought the national economy had gotten worse.
WTF?
I don't know what is going on here. Somehow there is a huge disjunction between what respondents believe and their (lying?) eyes. Is this a hangover from the shock of a pandemic that closed the whole thing down abruptly and only reopened in fits and starts? Are they absorbing mass (or small) media that tells them that things are awful? Some other cause?
What do respondents envision when asked about "the economy"? I suspect that the measues that shape our answers to that question may differ a lot. For some it might be, am I making enough money to live comfortably? For others, it might mean something more like, can I plan for a bigger and better future -- buying a new car, taking out a mortgage on a residence, taking a vacation?
Please leave any explanations you can think of in the comments.
• • •
To try to get a better sense of this, I ask myself how I'd answer. As a resident of San Francisco, I'd certainly say the local economy was getting worse: we have enjoyed a city economy based on commuters and these folks just aren't coming, while a lot of workers from the tech boom sector are getting laid off.
On the other hand, the national economy looks wildly good -- pretty much anyone who wants a job can get one; wage increases are exceeding inflation. I find the national economic pessimism inexplicable. How do you explain it?
No comments:
Post a Comment