Tuesday, May 10, 2011

A long game

Here's a hopeful snippet of political analysis.

This country is simply going to have to move forward with some, mostly sane, somewhat humane, immigration reform. Given our frequent outbreaks of fear of the foreigner and the (mostly) Republican politicians who exploit those fears, it's hard to see that happening. But Doug Harlan J at Balloon Juice envisions how we get there.

There’s no way on earth that any kind of major immigration reform will pass between now and November, 2012. Democrats should push the issue anyway, though, because (a) it’s a big political winner and (b) if Republicans take enough of a beating among Latino voters in 2012, they may change their tune and help pass something in the next Congress or the one after. ...

Now is a perfect time to try. Republicans will block it and they’ll pay a price at the polls for doing so. The only way to make progress on this issue right now is beat Republicans with it until they say uncle.

My emphasis.

I can make an additional suggestion. In 2012, the Democrats need to somehow find enough money and guts to invest in pushing Arizona, Texas and Georgia toward their column, engaging their growing Latino populations. It's probably too early in the country's ongoing demographic shift to swing those places over, but giving the Republicans a scare while hanging on to increasingly Latino Nevada and Colorado should put a fear into the saner ones.

Oh -- the President is talking immigration in Texas today ... looks like his political team makes the same calculation. He won't actually do anything about immigration -- in fact, enforcement of deportation policies under Obama has been more brutal than under Bush.

But if Latinos vote, Obama and most Democrats will win them. The other team is simply too obviously straight-up racist.

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