It was COVID -- and all those new voters

William Saletan at Slate reports on the factors that the former president's political consultant Tony Fabrizio believes lost the election for Donald Trump.

A different candidate might have been able to take advantage of the fact that the pre-pandemic economy was pretty good for many of us. But Trump put himself on the wrong side of people's life and death concerns:

... Fabrizio found that in the 10 battleground states, “majorities of voters … prioritized stopping the spread of [the virus] over re-opening the economy.” The virus “was the top issue” in these states, the pollster observed, “and Biden carried those voters nearly 3 to 1.” In the exit polls and in McLaughlin’s survey, voters said by significant margins that Biden would handle the virus better than Trump.

Fabrizio flagged two particularly foolish mistakes in Trump’s response to the virus. One was ridiculing masks. In the 10 battleground states, voters who favored mask mandates (Biden’s position) outnumbered those who opposed mask mandates (Trump’s position) by a ratio of 3 to 1. The enormous pro-mask constituency went to Biden by about 30 points, on average, in the five states that flipped to him. 

Trump’s other dumb move was his persistent slander against Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. In the five states that flipped to Biden, 72 percent of voters approved of Fauci’s job performance, and 63 percent of those voters went to Biden.

But even those Trumpian missteps wouldn't necessarily have done the job of deposing the guy. For all Trump's unpopularity --

Trump outpolled Biden among people who had voted in 2016.

What killed Trump were the new voters. Biden won them by 14 points in the five decisive states. [my emphasis]

Election volunteers should take some credit. It's a truism that campaigns can't overcome fundamentals deriving from underlying conditions. A prosperous country isn't going change leadership lightly. 

But energetic campaigns can shift who votes by a few percentage points. By text, by postcard, by phone, and at the doors, millions of citizens determined to oust Trump turned out unexpected voters -- some newly registered, some just less politically engaged. And these citizens put Biden-Harris into office and sent the Donald scurrying off to his Florida resort.