No good options: Trump lost his war

If only most of the world weren't going to suffer for his foolish hubris.

From Noah Berlatsky: 

You lost a war. Now what?

Trump ... launched a war of aggression against Iran without clear goals, without building domestic political support, without coordinating with allies, and without logistical preparation.

This was not a formula for success, and sure enough, when Iran seized and closed down the Strait of Hormuz instead of capitulating immediately, Trump and his team of dunderheaded and cowardly fascists hesitated briefly and then gave up. Ever since, the president has been searching for a way to back out of his enormously unpopular war in a way that doesn’t make him look like the cowardly dunderheaded fascist he is.

Unfortunately for Trump, though, the people who won the war (that is, Iran) have little to no incentive to let him set terms to make himself look good, or even adequate. Neither do other leaders in the region. As foreign policy scholar Elizabeth N. Saunders explains, Trump has two choices: “Humiliation or (increasingly futile) escalation.”

Escalation is a terrible option for Trump. The US has already shown that bombing alone cannot defeat the Iranian regime. That leaves a ground invasion as the only possible path to something like victory. 

But a YouGov poll at the end of March found that only 14 percent of US adults support sending ground troops into Iran. Among independents, nine percent support ground troops against 66 percent who oppose, and even among Republicans an invasion is a loser, with 30 percent support against 37 percent opposition.

These figures are dismal enough to suggest that significantly ramping up the war could actually cause Trump’s terrible overall approval to fall even further — especially with Republicans (73 percent of whom support the war), and especially if significant numbers of US service people are killed in combat.

So that leaves accepting humiliation.

Unfortunately for Trump, taking the L is also a bad option, because while analysts and experts recognize that he’s lost the war, most of the public hasn’t yet gotten the message. In a poll last week, 32 percent believed that the US is winning the war, while only 16 percent thought the US was losing; 37 percent believed the US would eventually win. That is a significant number of people who are going to be startled if Trump negotiates a “deal” and there are weeks of headlines about how the US lost.

... To sum up, if Trump escalates, people are going to hate him. If he surrenders, people are going to hate him. If he dithers, people are going to hate him. He has no good options, which is why he’s spinning in place, hoping someone, anyone, will rescue him. 

My emphasis. Before reading this, I had not realized that the majority in the U.S. don't yet know Trump had managed to launch a military campaign that our armed forces could not "win" at an acceptable price in lives -- Iranian, U.S. and others. If they weren't being chickenshit, the relevant generals and admirals undoubtedly told him this. Even Trump isn't dumb enough to get his advice from Pete Hegseth. I think ...

For some reason, major U.S. media keep trying to pretend that Iran is going to give Trump a way out. The New York Times has one of those silly headlines as I am writing: "U.S. Officials Say They Are Closing In on Arrangement to Reopen Strait of Hormuz." And then the more likely accurate subhead: "President Trump has not signed off on the emerging framework, according to U.S. officials. But it could set the table for extending the cease-fire and more substantive negotiations." That is, no genuine deal.

Media outlets have been passing along the same false story for weeks. I'll believe it when I see it. I guess we can deduce why so many of us don't yet know the mighty USofA lost Trump's war.