Making more losers, but we do not have to be suckers

Click to enlarge

Taking a day away from this blog after an intense 10 day stretch. Leaving this chart about the effects of MAGA's Big Ugly Bill for anyone interested to ponder. Yes, this is bad. And notice the headline The Financial Times put on the information. Not where I'd expect that reference.

And then there is the money for ICE. Phillip Bump of the Washington Post [gift article] describes cogently what Trump's Homeland Gestapo is doing already with its funding. 

Much to do if this country is to have a future. 

This Independence Day, It's on us. As it always has been

 

I'm more comfortable with this image after having spent quite a bit of time recently in New England. To many people of that part of this huge country, the image feels fitting. Elmer Davis was a radio journalist who served FDR's war against European fascism and Japanese imperialism in the role of Director of the Office of War Information.

 

How might similar sentiments be expressed these days in my home state of California? Perhaps like this:

Here on the Left Coast, we'll take a dose of snark with our defiance of unjust rulers. But that doesn't mean we are not a force to be reckoned with when aroused. And we're getting aroused.

• • • 

The USofA has had quite a good 249 year run. Not saying we've always (or even most often) been on the side of justice, against oppression, for full liberation of all. In fact, this enterprise has always been murderous to some. It's taken us all those years to more fully recognize some people are really people. But in our better seasons, African people imported as slaves, and foreign newcomers, and women, and LGBTQ+ people, and even the native people whose land the rest of us stole have been increasingly recognized as fully human by the polity we have made for ourselves. 

 

Our institutions are creaky and not currently serving our best aspirations. We need to remember that there's more in our Declaration of Independence beyond the bold assertion that "all men are created equal' and should be understood to have "inalienable rights." The declaration goes on to insist that this understanding of where and from whom government acquired legitimacy means we can have expectations: 

... Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.

Current US institutions -- the Congress, the Supreme Court, the Constitution of 1789, the various states -- are proving no match for an oligarchic aspiring king whose executive power derives from the votes of 31 percent of the citizens. (Kamala got nearly another third and the rest stayed home.) 

Trump is governing by arrogating to himself powers our system never gave him nor meant any executive to have. And the system itself is proving incapable of stopping him.

Looks like the future of the United States of America is up to the consent of the governed, once again. Are we going to let King Donald get away with his heist?

Listening to the next generation

The aftershocks of Zohran Mamdani's victory over the Democratic field in New York City's mayoral primary just keep on coming. I've read and listened to a slew of them in the last few days. For an election operative/election junkie like me it's all fascinating.

From my own idiosyncratic background in decades of trying to get ordinary citizens to turn out for good causes as well as striving to enlarge the electorate, what Mamdani did is astonishing. About 975,000 people voted according to the final ranked choice tallies: 545,000 for Mamdani; 428,500 for Andrew Cuomo.  Mamdani's campaign organized something over 50,000 campaign volunteers (most of whom we can assume were New York voters.) That is, nearly 10 percent of his voters volunteered in some way. And this number doesn't count whatever percentage of Mamdani's over 20,000 small donors gave money but didn't actively work in voter contact in the campaign.

Getting this high a percentage of an electorate activated is extremely rare. I'm not sure I've ever seen any thing close; perhaps for Obama in 2008, though I doubt it. Mamdani must have combined good fundamentals -- a deep appeal -- with extraordinary organization.

John Della Volpe has been polling director at Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics for over 20 years. He has a specialty, he explains: "I spend most of my time talking with, surveying, and thinking about young Americans." 

Young people campaigned for Mamdani and voted for Mamdani in very high numbers. Della Volpe describes what he thinks Mamdani evoked and what he has seen emerging for a long time: 

To Republicans, Mamdani represents everything they warn against: a socialist insurgent, a destabilizing force, a glimpse of where they fear the country is heading. Trump labeled him a “100% Communist Lunatic.” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis called him “very dangerous to the future of the city.” Charlie Kirk went even further, comparing Mamdani’s win to “9/11 2.0.”

But the louder panic came from inside his own party. Democratic leaders rushed to express concern — not just about his victory, but about what it might signal. ... What’s become clear is this: Mamdani didn’t just pull off a political upset. He revealed a deeper fracture — a generation of voters who feel unseen and unheard — and a political establishment that, instead of listening or re-engaging, is warning the rest of the country to look away. 

Della Volpe makes three observations about Mamdani's win. There were voters available to be persuaded.

#1: This Wasn’t About Labels. It Was About Lives.

Mamdani’s win wasn’t a fluke. It was the result of a campaign that grasped something most politicos and consultants still miss: in cities like New York, the real divide is no longer left versus center. It’s disconnection versus recognition. 

... Mamdani didn’t offer slogans. He listened. He took those stories seriously. Then he built a platform that sounded less like a press release and more like the people living it. ... And Mamdani didn’t manipulate it. He mirrored it — and then turned it into momentum.

Listening won Mamdani what money could not buy: 

#2: The Trust Recession

This election wasn’t just about housing or crime or affordability. It was about trust. And how little of it remains.

Sounds easy, but for a politician to choose to really listen and thereby win trust is a stretch for even willing politicians. Throwing oneself into the public arena is hard; you quickly learn there will be detractors, some of them unfair. Listening requires ego strength -- but also a strength that doesn't mask defensiveness. Mamdani seems to have such an equilibrium; this made for a perfect contrast to Cuomo's habitual arrogant bluster. 

#3: The Strategy Worked — But It Doesn’t Travel on Its Own

There’s already a rush to frame Mamdani’s win as a warning shot — or a roadmap — for Democrats nationally. But the truth is more grounded than that. What happened in Queens, Brooklyn, and across parts of the Bronx, Manhattan, and Staten Island wasn’t a template for the nation. It was a local reaction to a local crisis — a campaign rooted in New York’s specific pain points: housing, transit, affordability, and a growing sense that city government no longer works for regular people.

The lesson isn’t to copy Mamdani’s message. It’s to copy his method. ... In a post-election interview with Jen Psaki, Mamdani put it plainly: “We hoped to move our political instinct from lecturing to listening.

This New Yorker is going to have to be tough. Fortunately, he's suited for a tough city -- a city in Donald Trump's crosshairs.

Denouncing the war on those who have served

 

Every Wednesday at noon, veterans and friends gather at the entrance to the San Francisco VA Medical Center to protest Trump administration cuts and privatization plans.

Protesters are a lively bunch, spreading out to all four corners of the vehicle entrance and chanting loudly.

 

A vet explains the protest to a Med Center visitor exiting the campus. This crew makes a point of talkng with their people.

 

Choosing to alienate veterans seems a foolish move by Trump and MAGA.

When freedom seemed possible ...

Does history really have "turning points? The more deeply one looks into it, the less apt that metaphor seems. Human history is a long flow of events, accidents, and choices that could lead in different directions, but which are never entirely dictated by what came before and are uncertain in what future they may portend. 

But, oh, are there moments when something epic seems to have come along!

Summer of Fire and Blood: The German Peasants' War by Lyndal Roper, a senior Oxford historian revisits one such moment which, looking backward, we seem to periodically notice and then forget. In 1525, in the wake of Luther's destabilization of Western Christendom, in what is now modern Germany, peasants undertook to overturn feudal society and it looked for a moment as if their marching columns had succeeded. 

The German Peasants' War was the greatest popular uprising in western Europe before the French Revolution. ... Peasants massed in armed bands in one region, then another, and rebellions would break out even in areas far away. At its height it involved well over a hundred thousand people, perhaps many more, who joined with the rebels to bring about a new world of Christian brotherhood. And for several months they won. Authority and rulership collapsed ... People even began to dream of a new order. 

But this moment didn't last. ... The forces of the lords put down the revolt by slaying somewhere between seventy thousand and a hundred thousand peasants. ...

Insofar as the revolt can be said to have had an intellectual inspiration, Martin Luther's Freedom of a Christian published in 1520 served, despite Luther's quick repudiation of these ungoverned rebels. But the peasants, with input from other reforming clergy, created their own manifesto.

For them, freedom mean ending serfdom ... the peasants themselves ... formulated their complaints. The Twelve Articles then became a document that the movement everywhere acknowledged, even when the rebels didn't know exactly what the articles contained, and even though many areas revised them to suit local circumstances. Soon they were printed using the new technology made possible by the invention of moveable type, and they spread all over Germany. You could pick them up and hold them in your hand, point to each demand and the biblical passages that proved their godliness.

... The passions and dreams that drove the movement can seem inchoate, naive, and contradictory. ... this was not a movement driven by the literate few. It was a mass struggle by individuals who risked and lost their lives to try to bring about a new world. ...

The vision that drove them was about humans' relationship to creation. They were angry that lords claimed ownership of natural resources-- the water, the common land, the woods and forests -- when these were God's creation, given to all. They were enraged that the lords had stolen their freedom and claimed to own them when, as Luther showed, Christ had bought us all with his precious blood,"thus the Bible proves that we are free and want to be free." They were incensed by the growing inequality they saw around them ... They wanted men to live as brothers, in mutual obligation, not as lords and serfs. Theirs was an unabashedly male ideal, nourished by bonding amongst the peasant fighters, though that doesn't mean that women didn't support it too. They wanted decisions to be made collectively and to manage natural resources in a way that would respect the environment that God had created. ...

... for most of the war, the peasants were nonviolent; they humiliated but did not kill their lords. They questioned the established order at just the moment when capitalism was expanding and when Europeans were encountering new worlds, but they did not necessarily want to destroy authority of all kinds. Yet the authorities destroyed them, obliterated their movement, and built the structures of the current world on its ashes.

Roper's account of the peasants' brief but unprecedented revolt is detailed and granular. This is fascinating narrative history which for an American needs to be read alongside maps.

• • • 

The peasants' war is a huge historical event which 1) tends to be dropped from most accounts of early modern European history because its implications remain unclear, except that 2) Friedrich Engels brought a tendentious explanation of it to the fore in the context of articulating 19th century socialist thinking.

Roper's conclusion is her contribution to this historiography, to the academic theories and debates about what sort of frame in which to put the eruption. Here are some of those points, quotations from the book unless bracketed:

• ... [the peasants] were angry at how the lords treated them, but explaining the revolt in economic terms is not enough. Many richer peasants and even burghers joined the revolt ... if anything, conditions might have been improving as peasants engaged in markets and a long period of economic upswing continued after the Black Death. 

• ... the Reformation brought a religious transformation that did far more than legitimize or justify previous attacks on the abuses of feudalism; it brought a new vision of freedom, and of relations between human being as the environment. ... as some put it, all of us, rich and poor alike, are Christ's 'aigen,' his 'own', the same word as for serfs. 

• ... Marching together or taking over monasteries and convents allowed peasants to experience together a life of plenitude, where there was enough meat for all and more wine and beer than you could drink, a life of comradeship and brotherhood, not of dour monastic asceticism. These were ideals for which people were willing to fight. ... All could subscribe to the Twelve Articles, even those who did not know its specific contents. ... The rebels hatred of princes and 'top dogs' was now sealed in blood and gone was any reverence for rulers.

• ... the movement was held together by male bonding ... it is hard to know whether women would have felt included in their men's demands though the revolt could not have succeeded without women's support in running the farms and gardens their menfolk had left.

• ... the peasants' failure to bring the large towns in ... the cities were simply too populous, rich, powerful and well-armed to be seriously threatened by a peasant army.

• ... [yet] the peasants flattened the towers of lordship and wiped out the sacred geography of pilgrimage and monasticism. ... the war permanently undermined the power of the lesser nobility ...

• ... the ideas and dreams that had been formed in the war did not disappear but lived on in Anabaptism and in many varieties of radical thought. ... The war's legacy of blood desacralized lordship ... 

It's easy to think and feel that the present moment is another hinge point, a turning of some sort, what with climate change on top of the decay of Western capitalism and democracy. Maybe it is and maybe it isn't. But Roper's volume casts light on a time that felt and perhaps still appears to have been such a moment. I recommend it. 

Snippets from the Senate crime scene

They are voting on this abomination right now. It seems right to share a few tidbits from Democratic Senators denouncing Donald Trump's Big Ugly Wealth Transfer budget. After all, the poor will get over it ...

"This is the most deeply immoral piece of legislation I have ever voted on in my entire time in Congress,” said Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT).

“[W]e're debating a bill that’s going to cut healthcare for 16 million people. It's going to give a tax break to…massively wealthy people who don't need any more money. There are going to be kids who go hungry because of this bill. This is the biggest reduction in…nutrition benefits for kids in the history of the country.”

... “This bill is a farce,” said Senator Angus King (I-ME). “Imagine a bunch of guys sitting around a table, saying, ‘I've got a great idea. Let's give $32,000 worth of tax breaks to a millionaire and we’ll pay for it by taking health insurance away from lower-income and middle-income people. And to top it off, how about we cut food stamps, we cut SNAP, we cut food aid to people?’... I've been in this business of public policy now for 20 years, eight years as governor, 12 years in the United States Senate. I have never seen a bill this bad. I have never seen a bill that is this irresponsible, regressive, and downright cruel.”

... “This place feels to me, today, like a crime scene,” Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) said on the floor of the Senate. “Get some of that yellow tape and put it around this chamber. This piece of legislation is corrupt. This piece of legislation is crooked. This piece of legislation is a rotten racket. This bill cooked up in back rooms, dropped at midnight, cloaked in fake numbers with huge handouts to big Republican donors. It loots our country for some of the least deserving people you could imagine. When I first got here, this chamber filled me with awe and wonderment. Today, I feel disgust.” 

All by way of historian Heather Cox Richardson. 

 

If it were up to the Mission, heads would roll

 

We don't much like these guys.

They don't much like us either.

Tough people still rise. It's Gay Freedom season

It's a tough year for LGBTQIA+ celebrations. Not so much here in San Francisco where we've had four delicious days of Pride. But around the country and around the world. I liked these events better back in the day when we called the demonstrations  "Gay Freedom parades";  maybe that label will make a comeback in the season of MAGA.

We're tough people. Most of us have had to be tough in order to overcome conformity to normative gender rules. In the early AIDS days, many haters thought we'd all die, and too many of them thought that was just fine. But we survive and even thrive.

These Hungarian queers have shown what it is to survive and fight to thrive. Erin in the Morning reports on Hungarians braving their tough surroundings. 

200,000 March In Budapest Pride, Refusing To Capitulate To Anti-LGBTQ+ Law
The march can teach the world the power of organized solidarity in the wake of a global, anti-LGBTQ+ reactionary movement.

 

While American institutions wrestle with their commitment to the LGBTQ+ community, Budapest has just shown the world how to fight back: led by the city’s mayor, more than 200,000 people defied the ban and marched for Pride anyway.

... Hungary has increasingly restricted the rights of LGBTQ+ people—particularly transgender people—under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s far-right government. Laws enacted in recent years include a ban on legal gender recognition for transgender individuals, a so-called “LGBTQ+ propaganda” law designed to censor LGBTQ+ content in media and schools, and a prohibition on same-sex couples adopting children. Most recently, the Hungarian parliament passed legislation declaring pride parades illegal. ...

Organizers and Mayor Gergely Karácsony had other plans. The city officially designated Budapest Pride as a city-sponsored event—an action he argued exempted it from the national ban. ... 

... In the face of mounting attacks, it’s easy for LGBTQ+ people in the United States to feel crushed beneath the weight of it all. But moments like Budapest remind us that even under the most repressive regimes, our communities still rise. ... 

Let's keep up the good work against our homegrown haters. 

Keeping the pressure on in Colma

Neighbors gathered on Saturday on either side of Junipero Serra and Serramonte Blvds. in Colma (that's Auto Row)  to let passing cars know what they think of Elon, Tesla, and the Trump regime.

Sign waving demonstrators collected friendly honks from drivers passing every which way.

Our messages are serious.

This movement has created enough history so organizers come with a car load of highly appropriate signs.

Nobody is giving up.

Scenes from the gathering for the Trans March

We gathered in the sun at Dolores Park. The fog was nowhere about. Many are the years that Pride weekend at the end of June is one of the coldest in San Francisco. Not this time.

And the people came: joyous and determined.

When the world wants to erase you, delight in being together remains an antidote.

Trans youth have much to say ...

Trans youth and friends kicked off San Francisco's extended LGBTQIA+ weekend with a rally Thursday night on City Hall steps in response to the Supreme Court's Skrmetti decision allowing states to outlaw gender care for people under 18.

 

I asked this young person if I could photograph their sign. They agreed, so long as I didn't reveal their face.

There was defiance in the crowd ...

And earnest advocacy ...

And a goodly supply of allies. We are all in this together in the time of MAGA.

A few thoughts about Zohran from people closer than I am

I did live in New York City for a few years, way back in the hyper-energetic times of Mayor John Lindsay (1970-73) whose government epitomized the hope that a rich, diverse city could somehow have it all -- social peace, racial justice, and economic prosperity. Some look back on the moment with belated appreciation, while for others, it still seems a nadir of dysfunction. For a young person seeking her path, it was an exciting, if occasionally scary, backdrop to personal maturing. And then I got out in time not to witness the city's near insolvency and the blowback when the plutocrats reasserted their rule.

So I'm truly a remote observer of Zohran Mamdani's earthquake. Why NYC voters have dared to vote for someone/something new!

Evidently the money guys are terrified, reports Paul Waldman. Zohran has a excited a city they avoid noticing from their chauffeured limousines. 

Mamdani Win Causes World's Whiniest Babies to Melt Down 

... What exactly do these babies think Mamdani is going to do if he becomes mayor? They don’t like that he’s a democratic socialist; fair enough. Many of them just don’t like Muslims, which is sadly predictable. But what do they think the mayor is going to do that will be so catastrophic?

Granted, he has a lot of ambitious ideas in his platform. He wants to make buses and childcare free for all New Yorkers, for instance. Will that happen? Maybe, maybe not. It won’t be easy. But if he managed it, would it make the city some kind of intolerable hellhole for the rich?

... For many Americans, the idea that there are other Americans who feel safe and happy in environments of racial and ethnic diversity just doesn’t compute. Aren’t you supposed to only be comfortable around your own tribe? Aren’t you supposed to feel aggrieved when you hear languages other than English being spoken? For many people who have spent a lot of time in urban environments, the answer is that diversity is precisely what makes a place feel reassuring and comfortable. 

That's sure what I learned living in New York and I eventually settled in the place most like NYC with less crowding that existed in that decade. (San Francisco might no longer play that role ... times and cities change.) 

John Ganz at Unpopular Front tackles the touchy question of America's most Jewish city voting for a proud Muslim who supports Palestine:

... There clearly was an effort to smear Mamdani with Jewish voters as an antisemite, and it just didn’t work. 

The guy just does not come across as a hateful person. Also, New York has a population about the size of Israel, except compared to them, we are practically a utopia, where people of very different backgrounds live peacefully (if grumpily) side by side. Let’s not introduce ethnic hatreds into a place where they are largely successfully overcome. 

And let me tell you a little secret: most New York Jews really like New York’s diversity. We like that it attracts the Mamdanis of the world. We like sharing it with people of lots of different backgrounds. That’s what makes us feel safe and happy here. Especially when they are such a mensch like him: a nice college boy, his parents are a professor and a filmmaker, he went to Bronx Science, and then to a liberal arts school. 

I’m sorry, but you are gonna have a hard time convincing liberal educated, upper-middle-class Jews not to like a college-educated, left-leaning immigrant—and one who tried to make a career in the arts?! Forget about it. The guy is practically Jewish! Not to mention that his Muslim and Indian identity is no doubt sincere, but it’s also largely cultural in a way a lot of Jews recognize. ...

Ganz draws some conclusions which I think speak to how US voters might retrieve our democracy, if we get the chance. Most politicians, especially Democrats currently in the wilderness, have been mesmerized by messaging gurus who prescribe poll tested lines ... but mostly voters simply want someone who convinces them they can lead, in some new, better direction. That can be dangerous.  Trump's success points up the danger of a democratic populace feeling adrift -- a whole lot of people are finding out that the Leader might be leading them over a cliff.

Ganz again:

The problem with the polling and all the emphasis on data in contemporary politics is that it does not take into account that the electorate doesn’t really exist until election day, and the politician and his or her campaign are actively creating that electorate. All political errors, from the level of action to analysis, are based on reifying the situation, believing in a static, factual reality that cannot be changed. And all great political successes are based on the opposite: the art of the impossible; believing in a chance for something new.

Once upon a quite recent time, Barack Obama came across as something new; we're open to a novel direction again. Let's make sure it is a good one.

DEI reminder

It's good getting my health care from a medical system that wants its diverse patient population to know that it aims to treat us all rightly. That's even slightly brave in this moment ... posters encountered in the elevators.

 

Kaiser sure isn't perfect, but the track they've chosen at least mirrors the realities of the population of this city and state.