Paul Krugman, who is a Nobel prize winner unlike one Orange-tinted pretender, knows the score. It's hard to manage an enormous economy well. Krugman explains this requires a smart balancing act. That's why we have (had?) an independent Federal Reserve Board, to make economic decisions as impartially as any democratic political system allows.
When the inflation rate is low but the unemployment rate is high, as it was during the Great Recession in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed should cut the federal funds rate. By lowering the fed funds rate, the Fed makes it cheaper for banks to lend. This boosts the spending and investing activity in the economy and brings unemployment down.
When inflation is high but unemployment is low – that is, when the economy is at risk of overheating -- as it was in 2022, the Fed should raise the fed funds rate. This slows down spending and investing and brings inflation down.
But when the unemployment rate and the inflation rate are both too high — what economists call “stagflation” — the Fed faces a dilemma. Cut the fed funds rate
ratesto support employment and you risk worsening inflation. Raise the fed funds rate to fight inflation and you risk raising unemployment. With stagflation, there are no easy answers, just a tradeoff of risks.And this dilemma looks very relevant right now:
many economic indicators suggest that the United States will soon undergo at least mild stagflation. ...
Not a moment when you want more buffoons in charge. But here we are with the Orange Madman in the White House.
Most likely, if Trump gets his way with the Fed, the country will drift into an economic doom loop which will be bad for ordinary folks as prices rise and jobs disappear -- and Donald Trump isn't interested in any of this. He's got a bunch of crackpot ideas which defy the experience of over 100 years of advanced capitalist economies. And he wants unlimited power over the Fed to force it to implement his notions.
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Lisa Cook |
Meanwhile, the Trump economy and especially federal workforce cuts are already disproportionately kicking Black women to the curb.
Erica Green describes the carnage:
... The most recent labor statistics show that nationwide, Black women lost 319,000 jobs in the public and private sectors between February and July of this year, the only major female demographic to experience significant job losses during this five-month period,...
Experts attribute those job losses, in large part, to Mr. Trump’s cuts to federal agencies where Black women are highly concentrated.
White women saw a job increase of 142,000, and Hispanic women of 176,000, over the same time period. White men saw the largest increase among groups, 365,000, over the same time period.
Ms. Roy said that with the exception of the pandemic, Black women have never seen such staggering losses in employment. And over the last decade, the experiences of that population have consistently signaled what is to come for others.
“Black women are the canaries in the coal mine, the exclusion happens to them first,” Ms. Roy said. “And if any other cohort thinks it’s not coming for them, they’re wrong. This is a warning, and it’s a stark one.”
... a report published by the National Women’s Law Center, which compiled and analyzed the now-deleted O.P.M. [the federal Office of Personnel Management] data, showed that government agencies that were targeted for the deepest cuts had employed the highest percentages of women and people of color. ...
He's coming for all of us who can't pay him off -- but he's coming first for Black women. That's how it works in this country.
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