This graph shows what happens when a Senator takes a high profile role in the health care reform discussion. Montana's Dem Senator Jon Tester is no liberal and his state is more Republican than Democratic (barely). But he signed on to "reform" early on and shut up. His Dem colleague Max Baucus of the Senate Finance Committee fame tried to be the "hero" who brokered a "bipartisan" bill -- and he got hammered from right and left.
Senator Blanche Lincoln of Republican leaning Arkansas has the potential to cast the deciding vote on whether this thing passes. Silver says to her: look at the Montanans.
Let's hope she prefers being re-elected to being the center of attention which is what holding out against the bill will get her.
Then there's the noxious Joe Lieberman whose sole discernible purpose in life is being the center of attention...