Suppose all the polls say he'll be defeated when the country votes on November 3rd? It certainly looks likely this will be where it's at: presidents who preside over apocalyptic plagues and economic plunges aren't popular. So can he intervene somehow to stop us from choosing a replacement? Given the character of the man, he is almost certain to try.
So it seems responsible to collect what we know now about this possibility so we can begin to get our minds around what we might have to raise hell about. With some luck, none of the bad stuff will happen, but we haven't had a lot of luck lately.
Some states have postponed primary elections during the last week. Without the cooperation of Congress, Trump cannot do that in November; the voting day, the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, was set by statute in 1845. Good thing we elected a Democratic House; I don't see Nancy Pelosi caving in on that.
Moreover, that pesky Electoral College is required by law to meet in December and it takes the results of an election to choose the electors. And the 20th amendment to the Constitution says the president's term is four years, ending at noon January 20; after that, election or no election, no more President Trump unless he's won re-election in the normal way.
What the president is more likely to try to do is scare people out of voting. There's no reason to think he'd be truthful when doing that. He might claim the Chinese had poisoned all the polling places or some such racist fantasy. Limbaugh and Hannity will be right on it. Can you see him announcing an emergency cancellation that he has no authority for? Sure, he already has used a phony emergency for his Wall. Trump's opponents need to work to be sure our folks know he doesn't have the authority to stop the vote.
One protection we might have against a phony emergency is that the people most likely to believe Trump's claims are his voters, not ours. Old Republicans are, unfortunately, some of the most credulous people around. And about that sort of thing, Trump is canny.
The best way to protect the November election now is to agitate for making mail balloting available everywhere. This is tough to achieve since voting rules are set state-by-state and most blue states already make voting easier in many ways. Its largely the GOP places that make voting so hard. Oregon Senator Ron Wyden is pushing for $500 million in federal money to help states set up mail voting systems -- how about making that part of the coronavirus stimulus? And how about some more cash to set up early voting polling places so voters can practice distancing without lines? Republicans won't be eager; they believe that when everyone can vote easily, they lose more than they win.
Resources:
Buzzfeed examines what laws might stop Trump from breaking the November election.
Ed Kilgore has a great rundown of which states provide mail-in ballots now. California encourages voters to sign up for permanent mail-in voting and automatically sends out ballots to the two thirds of us who want them. Happily, both our neighbors, Arizona and Nevada, do the same. In the latter case the practice is getting its first run in 2020. Voters in Arizona have to ask to their County Recorder's office to be on the Permanent Early Voter list.
The Brennan Center offers a plan to "Protect the 2020 Vote from the Coronavirus" which suggests numerous doable measures that could be taken to make voting safer and easier in a time of pandemic. They've got suggestions on all of it, from easy voter registration to healthy polling places. Activists should take note: some of our states and local authorities can implement much of this even if we can't win federal money.
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