Thursday, February 08, 2018

Raining on Trump's parade

When you need to take down a Dickhead, send an articulate veteran. Listen to Adam Weinstein, formerly of the U.S. Navy:

Take Your Military Parade And Drop It In Your Gold-Plated Toilet
... The stock market, previously the president’s favorite benchmark of national success, is tanking severely and whiplashing back up, and no one seems to fully understand why. Sixty-four thousand Americans are dying of drug overdoses per year — 175 per day, double the rate a decade ago — and nobody knows how to stop them. The suicide rate in America is higher than it’s been in decades, and it’s highest in the rural areas that economic progress and politicians of every stripe have left behind.

This is the America that our military is defending. It is not going well. The Afghanistan War, the United States’ longest in its history, has no obvious end; the generals in charge now were field grade officers when the war started. The forever war is turning out so many veterans that the VA can’t keep up — and the department is largely trying to fire its way out of the problem, without filling any of its top spots or hiring for any of its nearly 50,000 job vacancies. Some American war veterans are facing deportation. ...

Let’s throw a fucking military parade.

Let’s do it for the duly elected commander-in-chief, who was born on third base and blames the world for not just scoring it as a run. Whose entire “military” service consists of a private boarding-school diploma and five draft deferments. ...

There's much more. Enjoy.

Here come the scientists

You've probably heard about the unprecedented numbers of women running for office this year. Also perhaps the substantial contingent of vets from our forever wars who have jumped into the electoral fray. But did you know that, outraged by the Republican/Trump regime's disdain for climate change data and disciplined intellectual work in general, more than 200 candidates from science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) backgrounds have come out to run for office this year?

Science expertise needs some bolstering in Congress. Grist reports that the science-oriented PAC 314 finds currently

one PhD physicist, one microbiologist, and a handful of engineers.

And these aspirants have a lot to overcome:

The scientist candidates won’t have it easy. Some are challenging incumbents, who are generally favored. And some opponents will have financial support from the fossil fuel industry and the Koch brothers, who are spending $400 million on the election this year.

Shaughnessy Naughton, founder and president of 314, says that’s to be expected: “There’s basically a direct correlation between money that the fossil fuel industry spends on candidates and their refusal to do anything about climate change.”

Two of 314's endorsed Congressional candidates are running in primaries in two of California's most contested seats: Hans Keirstead, a PhD. neuroscientist and stem cell researcher, is part of a crowd taking on GOPer Dana Rohrbacher in CA-48; Pediatrician Mai Khanh Tran aims to run against GOPer Ed Royce who hasn't faced much opposition in his Orange County CA-39 district for many years. Whether these two go on to the November ballot will be determined by the June 5 primary.

Poster noted while walking a working class San Francisco neighborhood.

Wednesday, February 07, 2018

Something for nothing

It doesn't take a business degree to rouse the suspicion that Bitcoin is scammy when flyers like these are turning up on light poles in downtown San Francisco
The New York Times has the story:

As Bitcoin Bubble Loses Air, Frauds and Flaws Rise to Surface
Hackers draining funds from online exchanges. Ponzi schemes. Government regulators unable to keep up with the rise of so-called cryptocurrencies. Signs of trouble have appeared at nearly every level of the industry, from the biggest exchanges to the news sites and chat rooms where the investment frenzy has been discussed.

... “Cryptocurrencies are almost a perfect vehicle for scams,” said Kevin Werbach, a professor at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “The combination of credulous buyers and low barriers for scammers were bound to lead to a high level of fraud, if and when the money involved got large. The fact that the money got huge almost overnight, before there were good regulatory or even self-regulatory models in place, made the problem acute.”

Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Making America White Again is not so easy

Trump and Republicans are up against a hard reality. The Washington Post aggregates demographers' assessments of the likely result of the sort of immigration restrictionist plans they are trying to make law.

Conclusion: cut backs in immigration might buy the white majority one to five more years in mid-century before various groups labelled "minorities" outnumber "white" people. (You know -- as is true today in California and other civilized corners of the country.)

Of course the restrictionist regime would inflict irreparable harm and pain among families unable to reunite with parents, brothers and sisters, or adult children. But hey, who cares about the affections of brown people?

And the economic damage could be great: this country's adult white labor force is shrinking. We're dependent on immigrants to fill many less well paying economic slots. But hey, who cares if we have enough hospital orderlies or janitors or elder care workers?

If Republicans really wanted to keep the country "white", they'd lavish resources on education and career advancement for Latinos who might be attracted to cross over and identify as white. But so long as they continue to demonize black, brown, and Asian-origin kids and deport their aunties, that's not going to work.

When wars don't end

I used to think that, if I had had more self-confidence as an unformed girl graduate student in a highbrow history program way back at the end of the '60s, I would have dared study the question that seemed most significant to me in those days: how did an apparently well functioning European civilization come to destroy itself in the barbaric Great War that we date from the assassination of an Austrian archduke in 1914? I suspected such interests were beyond me.

As I have become acquainted with modern popular scholarship on World War I, I have realized that I'm glad I never went that way: my linguistic weakness (I could barely read French and German) as well as scholarly timidity would have meant that I would have merely reinforced prevailing historiographic perspectives which are being usefully revised.

For decades, English speakers, including people in the United States, who thought about the Great War at all, thought about vast armies mired in muddy trenches in France where the Allies (that's us: Brits, French and U.S. doughboys) duked it out against the soldiers of the Central Powers (Germany and Austria-Hungary). Russia was in it somehow too, but then there was a Revolution and then Russia was out of it. And there was all sorts of peripheral action, in the Ottoman Empire, in African colonies, and across the deserts of Arabia with (with camels and T.E. Lawrence). Millions, soldiers and civilians, died. Finally in November 1918 an armistice silenced the guns on the Western front and afterward the Versailles treaty set the contours of Europe that held up until they didn't when Hitler broke Europe's peace again by invading Poland in 1939.

Historians have been hard at work deconstructing this Northern European/English-centered perspective in more recent times. There was an awful lot we didn't feel the need to absorb and remember. The stories of those "peripheral" conflicts have been told, and elaborated, and served the interests of various subsequent contenders for local power. And what the Great War meant in Central Europe, to the peoples of what had been the Austrian Hapsburg empire, the Wilhelmine (German) empire, Balkan kingdoms, the Ottoman empire and the Romanov (Russian) empire continues to demand more understanding as the struggles of the early 20th century continue to have resonance in the 21st.

These are historian Robert Gerwarth's subject in The Vanquished: Why the First World War Failed to End. He argues that outside of Britain, France and the United States, the Great War had no winners. For the wars' losers, he documents that the armistice brought upheaval, wreck, murder and privation that exceeded the war itself.

... the eventful years between 1917 and 1923 are still very much present in the collective memory of people from eastern, central and southern Europe, as well as those from the Middle East and Ireland. For them the memory of the Great War is often overshadowed, if not fully eclipsed, by foundational stories of independence struggles, national liberation, and revolutionary change in and around 1918 ...

... It was in this period that a particularly deadly but ultimately conventional conflict between states -- the First World War -- gave way to an interconnected series of conflicts whose logic and purpose was much more dangerous. Unlike World War I, which was fought with the purpose of forcing certain conditions of peace (however severe), the violence after 1917-18 was infinitely more ungovernable. These were existential conflicts fought to annihilate the enemy, be they ethnic or class enemies -- a genocidal logic that would subsequently become dominant in much of Europe between 1939 and 1945,

What was also noteworthy about the conflicts that erupted after 1917-18 was that they occurred after a century in which European states had more or less successfully managed to assert their monopoly on legitimate violence, in which national armies had become the norm, and in which the fundamentally important distinction between combatants and non-combatants had been codified (even if frequently breached in practice.) The post-war conflicts reversed that trend. In the absence of functioning states, in the former imperial lands of Europe, militias of various political persuasions assumed the role of the national army for themselves, while the lines between friends and foes, combatants and civilians, became terrifyingly unclear.

Gerwarth provides a narrative of horrors that followed: in the civil war between Bolsheviks and Whites in Russia, in new states (like Turkey) and states with old names but diminished territory (like Hungary and Romania), as ideologies, nationalisms, and power-seeking men with guns vied for hegemony. This history is about massacre, murder, torture, and, always lurking, mass starvation. People don't move beyond this kind of radical insecurity unscathed. It seems appropriate to wonder, has eastern Europe ever recovered?

The history I was raised on elided all this struggle and pain. I'm incredibly grateful to brave and linguistically capable historians, like Gerwarth, who have tried to bring narratives of this time and these places into a less-than-welcoming western consciousness. There is nothing easy about reading this story, but my picture of reality is larger for having been exposed to this history.

Two other accessible volumes which provide this sort of a necessary historiographic cold bath are Timothy Snyder's Bloodlands and Tony Judt's Postwar.

Monday, February 05, 2018

Does Trump hope to be hailed as "Slayer of American Football"?


Yes, yesterday's game was a truly great Super Bowl and we enjoyed it immensely.

But I haven't been watching much football this past season and not feeling much deprivation. When I think of the sport, I can't get out of the back of my mind that these magnificent athletes are probably damaging not only their bodies, but also their brains, for my entertainment. I know I'm not the only one. NFL ratings were down this season. Perhaps David Remmick's wistful musing which echoes my misgivings is correct.

Parents are asking the question once asked of boxing: Do you want your kids to play football?

This will not be the last Super Bowl any more than Ali–Frazier III was the last heavyweight-championship fight. But, just as boxing inexorably shifted to the margins of American life, this might be, for football, the start of the long eclipse.

Perhaps the POTUS sees the trend and amalgamates it with his own longstanding grievances, and sees a chance to grab credit for something that was going to happen without his intervention.

You see, for all his chumminess with some NFL owners today, Trump has a longstanding beef with the league. Thirty years ago he owned the New Jersey Generals of the United States Football League. USFL owners shelled out enough money to sign some quality football players. (San Franciscans should know that was where Steve Young got his start.) But they weren't the big time and could never be since they played in the spring, not the traditional fall season. Trump persuaded these rich men to sue the NFL. CNN tells the story:

Trump's plan? Convince his fellow owners to move the USFL's season to the fall.

But he also wanted to do something even more daring: Sue the NFL itself, alleging its stranglehold on stadiums and TV rights violated anti-trust laws.

The trial became a national sensation, with Trump himself taking the stand.

The NFL "portrayed him as the big powerful guy who was trying to take advantage of the poor little old NFL, you know: These guys are suffering. Donald Trump is beating them up. And that's the message that they got across to the jury," [former USFL Executive Director Steve] Ehrhart recalled.

But as the jury returned its verdict, it appeared Trump -- and the USFL -- had prevailed. The jury found against the NFL. But then the USFL owners read the entire 26-page decision.

The jury awarded them just $1 in damages.

Trump had been humiliated; the USFL went out of business like so many Trump businesses.

So perhaps when Trump blusters that football is "boring" because it has outlawed helmet to helmet hits -- and when he teaches his followers to think of players as uppity unpatriotic black billionaires -- he's just trying to position himself as the colossus that struck down what was once the dominant league in the dominant U.S. sport.

Since he has taken office, despite his unforeseen election, I think we can say that we've learned that Trump has not repealed the laws of political gravity. Responsible institutions and organized people continue to impede his whims.

Maybe his true talent has been to sniff out shrouded undercurrents and claim authorship. He intuited that racism and nationalism were ripe to be inflamed -- for his benefit. Might the NFL's decline be another such shocking, already ripe, opportunity to claim credit for something he merely latched onto? If so, this is far from the most significant of Trump's transgressions, but still an instance of a pattern worth noting.

Sunday, February 04, 2018

Commentary from the city by the bay

I can write an article about how this shit ends. Or I can just pass on what people around me have to say.
People need all of this.

Saturday, February 03, 2018

Republicans likely to regret using families as political props

Almost 25 years ago, I suddenly had thrust on me the task of making as electorally effective as possible the visceral moral outrage most Northern Californians felt against Republican Governor Pete Wilson's xenophobic, anti-immigrant initiative, Prop. 187. The Governor thought inspiring panic about immigrants would be an easy route to re-election by an anxious California electorate that was 78 percent white. And it worked that year. But soon enough, tarred with the ordure of racism, Republicans lost their grip on the state. The non-white proportion of the electorate grew quickly (up to 30 percent by 2000 and still rising today), people of color worked together in political coalitions (however fraught), saner whites calmed down, and some of the brown high school students who marched against Prop. 187 lead the state legislature now.

In that dire fall of 1994, when I knew we simply could not win the contest we'd been forced into, I used to suggest that the only thing that might change the hearts of white voters would be if some of the GOPers' KKK-admiring adherents burned an immigrant mother and child alive -- on broadcast TV. No such atrocity happened, thank goodness. But I still think that was about the only development that might have stemmed the California immigration panic of that year.

Today, as Trump and his panicked white supporters crusade to make America white again, his government is making choices that are so visibly unjust and unjustified as to be the near equivalent of the lynching I imagined. At every turn, the law is being used to deny sympathetic migrant families a dignified life in this country. A few easily Googled examples:
  • There's the Afghanistan vet and green card holder in Chicago who came back like so many with semi-diagnosed brain injury, got in legal trouble, failed to navigate the maze that is naturalization, and is now trying to fast to death rather than be dumped in Mexico.
  • Then there's Helen Huynh. She is no longer with us. Along with her husband who had been a soldier in the South Vietnamese Army during our IndoChina war, she migrated to Southern California, became a citizen, and lived a peaceful life until diagnosed at age 61 with acute myeloid leukemia. Her best chance for life would have been a stem cell transplant from a sister still living in Vietnam. This might have saved Ms. Huynh except that U.S. consular authorities overseas slow-walked giving the sister a visa until it was too late.
  • It doesn't matter to Trump's Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers how long someone has been a useful productive resident. Lukasz Niec, brought to the US from Poland at age 5, had lived in the U.S. with a green card for 40 years, worked as an internal medicine doctor in Kalamazoo, Michigan, and never bothered about citizenship. ICE dug up records of two teenage misdemeanors, some minor scrapes with the law which were expunged, and put the doctor in immigration detention awaiting deportation. His medical colleagues vouch for him and want him back at work.
  • Then there was Jorge Garcia, a 30-year Detroit resident with a U.S. citizen wife and two children and no convictions for anything. He was brought here by undocumented parents when he was ten; he had no path to citizenship, so ICE decided he had to go. The picture shows a last family hug at the airport.
What's more than a little amazing today is that the accumulating toll of atrocities against harmless residents -- a deportation here, a detention there -- in communities all over the country is cutting into our current anti-immigrant panic. According to Gallup (via Kevin Drum), both Democrats and Republicans (the latter almost all white, remember) are moderating their enthusiasm for reducing immigration.
Even among Republicans, the desire to reduce immigration has gone steadily down over the past two years. This is despite Donald Trump’s best efforts to weaponize the subject. Kevin Drum.
This is a lot better than the polling was in California in 1994. People, families, children, are still being terribly, and irretrievably, injured by Republican-inspired immigration theater. But if we can resist and protect enough, we just may grow out of this horrible moment. American cannot be made white again and the sooner we realize that, the sooner we can stop using the lives of migrants as political pawns.

Friday, February 02, 2018

When all looks unbearably bleak, remember this

Click on the graphic to enlarge. Source.

For all the horror of the world, human beings in aggregate have never lived so well as at present. If we can keep from blowing ourselves to bits or rendering the planet uninhabitable for our tribe and related living creatures, there's never been a better time to be alive.

This is simply true ...

Listen to Karen Attiah. She knows what she is talking about.

Friday cat blogging

Morty is good at sleeping. I just wish this flu allowed me to be equally relaxed, but there is always a puddle forming under me.

Wednesday, January 31, 2018

A spook ponders ...


A blinkered view of our enemies has caused us to make lots of miscalculations, most consequently it’s caused us to overlook some white citizens' dispossession — that steep loss of privilege and power of a group once on the top. Along with it we’ve missed what some Republicans and Neo-Nazi sympathizers eager to upend the country really are: symptoms of white male dispossession.

Both groups want to turn the clock back to a time when pure, orthodox Americanism was ascendant and expanding. They look at all outsiders as existential threats. These two groups lashing out with seemingly random violence may not be to most American's taste, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise that when it comes to dispossession, people on the margins often turn to violence when the group’s collective existence is at stake. Finally, in dismissing our enemies’ grievances, we miss that they may just have legitimate grievances.

... If the United States continues to dismiss our enemies’ fears, count on it that our miscalculation will continue to pile up, making things look more and more like a plague than a proper war. Forgetting that people governed by fear want to be governed by faith is a cardinal political error.

The author is Robert Baer, a CIA case officer in the Directorate of Operations from 1976 to 1997.

You may have guessed that the nouns in bold type are my replacements for Mr. Baer's original words. I'll post the original in the first comment below.

Military report on Afghanistan "not releasable"

While waiting for the big speech, it was easy to miss yesterday's news that Trump's Afghanistan war is going very sour (just as Obama's and George W.'s wars did).

Taliban suicide bombers have killed 130 people in the capital, Kabul, in the last week. The entity that passes for a "government" of the country controls less and less territory. Eleven U.S. troops were killed and 99 injured in this forgotten war in 2017; there have been plenty of airstrikes and plenty of civilian casualties -- but to what end?

Military leaders know that a civil war like this one can only end when the local parties reach some kind of negotiated agreement. But Trump says there can be no talks.

So what to do when a largely forgotten war is sinking into a quagmire (again)? You can stop telling the American people the truths that our own Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has uncovered. SIGAR reports are "unclassified," but the Pentagon has invented a new secret category: "not releasable to the public."

Now presumably the Taliban know what proportion of Afghanistan they control as do the people who live in those areas. Our military is not hiding information about the battlefield from the enemy -- it's hiding the quantification of its strategic failure from us.

Why do our leaders think we must continue this 17-year failure? There have been many rationales over the years, but I fear the current one is that Trump's advisors knew they could sell him on the war so long as he saw himself as the meanest ape around.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

We're hostage to a bomb maker

So the Orange Cheato is going give his first State of the Union address today. It's all too easy to assume that, all may not be well, but all is under control in Trumpland. A normal political cycle grinds on (if you don't include GOPer failure, despite their majorities, to pass any budget resolutions). How bad could things be?

This man's antics should remind that all is decidedly NOT well, that our hold on any normality is partial, a privilege of the (white) privileged, and precarious. I'll outsource commentary to Tom Toles:

When someone tries to reassure you that the institutions of American democracy are holding, they are telling you that the president of the United States is a recognized threat to them.

When someone says that the constitutional system hasn’t broken under Trump, what they are saying is “yet.”

When someone says that Trump tried but didn’t succeed in firing Robert S. Mueller III, they are acknowledging that the president was fully prepared to assert a dictatorial power, then decided the timing wasn’t right.

What we are watching is a president who doesn’t recognize any power but his own, and we’re trying to console ourselves with the fact that he picks his moments to break another pillar of representative government. But his intent is manifestly clear. ...

Read it all and resist.

Monday, January 29, 2018

We have feelings

Ever since I first saw this word cloud generated by the findings of a WSJ/NBC News poll I've been haunted by it. There's no reason to think this mistates the feelings of respondents; the methodology seems sound enough.

Two words stand out. "Disaster" and "Embarrassing." I understand the first, especially from people who had been doing alright during the Obama years, and most especially in the blue states which voted resoundingly for another round of Democratic party government. Take my state, California. We're solvent, making an effort to curb climate change insofar as a state can, and advancing toward a $15 minimum wage. Sure, we also have hideous economic inequality, struggling public schools, vast divides between races, and unaffordable housing prices. But until Trump came along, most of us (at least those of us who vote) could feel as if we were moving forward. Having the GOP trifecta in in power in Washington feels like being forced into perpetual defensive combat about matters we thought were settled.

It's that other big word in the cloud that I find disturbing: "Embarrassing." Embarrassment is a comparative emotion; a feeling of shame. Trump induces shame in a lot of us. I find myself wondering what we were so proud of. The salience of this emotion suggests it is important. Yet the kind of people who feel the embarrassment are some of the same people who hoped we were on the way to something better. Angry would seem a more appropriate emotion than shame -- but this is what many respond.

It's only fair to mention that Trump is not the only president who has evoked national embarrassment. Anyone remember George W.'s difficult encounter with a door?

I assume people feeling embarrassment are asking how could our system have allowed such a clusterfuck as the Orange Cheato's vicious kleptocracy? Well good. There's a lot wrong here that was obvious long before Trump came along to those with eyes to see. And current embarrassment might, with good leadership and a lot of luck, prompt action to get the country back on a positive trajectory, toward national and global struggle for multi-racial, economically egalitarian, gender non-constricting, woman affirming, and peace choosing democracy that preserves the habitability of earth for all (as I say in the sidebar of every page of this blog). We need nothing less.
***
For what it is worth, I would have answered either "racist" or "cruel" to the pollsters. How about you?
***
All this was reignited for me reading the wise Russian-American Masha Gessen taking the measure of Trump's expedition to hang with his fellow billionaires at Davos last week.

Our chronic embarrassment—or fear of embarrassment—when it comes to our President may be a new phenomenon, but our lack of imagination is not. The American political conversation has long been based on outdated economic and social ideas, and now it’s really showing.

Yes.

Sunday, January 28, 2018

Waiting for rebalance ...

This flu seems to offer a trap. Every time I try to push back into ordinary activity, my body temperature goes haywire and I feel weak and tired. Since pushing myself is, for me, the stuff of life, this is disconcerting.

I understand this will pass, but in the meantime, I'm sick of being sick!
***
When I posted the foregoing, how was I to know that I would encounter an article in the Times which perfectly catches why I find waiting out this illness so frustrating. The American author had surgery in Germany where medical practice assumes that knocking out a healthy post-operative patient with pain meds is unnecessary. She was mystified.

What exactly is resting?

I know how to sleep but resting is an in-between space I do not inhabit. It’s like an ambiguous place that can be reached only by walking into a magic closet and emerging on the other side to find a dense forest and a talking lion, a lion who can guide me toward the owl who supplies the forest with pain pills.

... I took two ibuprofens that first day. In hindsight, I didn’t need them, but I felt like I should take something. What I really needed was patience pills, and a few distractions. The hardest part of my recovery was lingering in bed, or on the sofa, feeling the discomfort and boredom as time ticked by slowly. I didn’t feel like reading or doing much of anything. ...

I get it.

Saturday, January 27, 2018

Jews lead rally for DREAM Act and Sanctuary for All

One year ago, President Trump issued his Muslim Ban.1, unleashing an eruption of rage and horror as citizems clogged airports for days and stiffened the spines of several federal judges who dared impede this racist, authoritarian order.

On Friday, under the apparent leadership of the Jewish justice organization Bend the Arc, protesters rallied outside the Northern California ICE Operations Center on Sansome Street to express solidarity with undocumented people in the crosshairs of the administration's planned raids.

Minimally, demonstrators want a DREAM Act regularizing the legal rights of young people who had protected status until Trump yanked it.

But in truth, these protesters advance a broadly shared vision of justice, not limited to immediate demands. This small action was cosponsored by Faith in Action Bay Area, Reform CA/Religious Action Center for Reform Judaism, Interfaith Movement for Human Integrity, Community Relations Council of the Jewish Federation of Silicon Valley, Jewish Family Services of Silicon Valley.
***
After one year of the Trump regime, if we're white, located in liberal cities, and comfortably economically situated, we can meander to through our lives without having it rubbed in our faces that the country has run off the rails. Many around us have seen their fears confirmed and hopes dashed by the right wing ascendancy this president represents. But we're not immigrants, or refugees, or "Black Identity Extremists" in the Justice Department's memorable words. We don't have to live in perpetual terror that the Migra might come for our loved ones.

Little events like this action at ICE remind us the status quo is NOT okay. And fortunately there is something we can do: the levers of democratic political action are within the reach of people like us; we can use them to throw the bums out and we must.

Friday, January 26, 2018

Gerrymanders and voter suppression


Gerrymandering has always interested me. Elbridge Gerry, the Founding Father whose creativity in drawing a Massachusetts state senate district inspired this 1812 cartoon, was some sort of ancestor. One of my great-grandfathers carried his name, though apparently was usually called "E.G."

And I've had some involvement with redistricting, in particular consulting for a civil rights coalition when boundaries were drawn for supervisor districts in San Francisco after the 2000 census. Our goal was to ensure, by providing suggested maps and advocating for them, that Black, Chinese and Latino constituencies would have as much voice as possible in city government. We got pretty much what we wanted from the city redistricting commission and those maps largely remain in place today. The software and data weren't up to the quality available now, but even then you could ask the guy on the computer something like "add two more blocks of Orizaba St. to District ll" and see right away what that did to the demographic profile of a district. With the increase in population and shifts in who lives where in this city -- mostly a lot less Black and Latino residents, and a lot more whites and people of various Asian ancestries often in dense areas -- I wouldn't be surprised to see boundaries redrawn quite a lot after 2020. Ensuring broad input into that process is one more reason we need to do all we can to elect a progressive mayor and supervisors in the coming election.

All this is introduction to the fact that I thought I knew a lot about redistricting and gerrymandering -- and I think I do. But The Gerrymandering Project at FiveThirtyEight.com is a deep dive into the subject which anyone with the slightest interest should take the time to plumb.

Gerrymandering is not just some dirty trick that Republicans have used to control a unfair majority of offices in states whose political partisanship would suggest a pretty even split. Yes, courts in North Carolina and Pennsylvania have found that this is indeed the case with those states' Republican-drawn House boundaries. Citizens are effectively losing the power of their votes because they are divided in ways which mean they never will be able to elect representatives they might choose. I have no trouble calling this voter suppression -- after all, some of these dopey Republicans have been dumb enough to admit they were trying to maintain a dominant position not justified by their partisan numbers.

But there is a lot more to the gerrymandering story. The folks at FiveThirtyEight look at the Wisconsin case currently before the Supremes (I'd bet the court somehow ducks it because who wants to adjudicate hundreds of gerrymandering appeals?), how the requirements of the Voting Rights Act that at least some districts be drawn so that people of color can be elected play out on the ground, and how different attempted remedies in Arizona and California have worked out. Somewhat to my surprise, California's redistricting commission, which was established by initiative, rescrambled the 2012 Congressional seats in this state and comes out looking fair and at least somewhat satisfying to voters, if not politicians.

Republican efforts to suppress voting -- to exclude some people (usually Black and Brown) from the franchise and simply discourage others from participating -- are real. As former GW Bush speechwriter David Frum has explained:

The Republican Party has a platform that can’t prevail in democratic competition. ... When highly committed parties strongly believe [in] things that they cannot achieve democratically, they don’t give up on their beliefs — they give up on democracy.

As the outlook for conservatives and Republicans becomes more bleak, they’re going to face a choice: Either they accommodate some of the changes that are happening to American society, like universal heath coverage, or else they’re going to have to face up to the fact that what they believe can’t be achieved if everybody votes.

So the next few years are going to be a long fight for voting rights and democracy.

But The Gerrymandering Project has convinced me that district boundaries are only a small part of what the fight will be about -- and that we won't be equipped for that fight without a better understanding of how redistricting happens in practice. Time to get up to speed ...

Friday cat blogging

Yet another feline, watching the world go by, regally.